French election: Michel Barnier pledges to unite ‘divided, arrogant France’

Speaking to The Times, he said that his long experience of European politics could induce change in Brussels to offset widespread disaffection with the bloc. He depicted President Macron as a solitary and elitist leader who had divided the country and fuelled the French reputation for “arrogance” abroad. He suggested that his inclusive approach could reconcile public opinion around a conservative agenda while ending the country’s isolation on the international stage.

“We must take account of the lessons of Brexit and of the sentiment of the people which expressed itself in the UK on many subjects, and which we find here, too.”

Without reforms to Europe’s immigration, trade and industrial policies, “there will be other Brexits and I do not want other Brexits”.

Barnier’s announcement that he wanted to run to become the Republicans presidential contender this summer was at first greeted with incredulity. Having spent 14 of the past 22 years in Belgium, his profile in France was low. Many voters had forgotten that he had held four ministerial posts.

Political commentators wrote off his chances, pointing out that he was even less popular than the other Republicans contenders. Now they are not so sure. Le Monde said he “ticks all the boxes”.

The rally in Montreuil-Juigné, in the heartland of moderate French Christian democracy, showed why his stock has risen, at least among the people who will count when it comes to choosing the Republicans candidate.

In the audience were mayors, councillors and other influential party members such as Catherine Deroche, 68, the local senator. She lauded Barnier as a throwback to the lofty presidents of yesteryear such as de Gaulle and Georges Pompidou. Her backing, and that of others like her, could prove crucial in a primary that will be settled by the 108,000 or so members of the party.

Barnier’s main rivals, Xavier Bertrand, 56, head of the Hauts-de-France council in northern France, and Valérie Pécresse, 54, leader of the Paris region authority, may be better known and more popular among the wider electorate, but both angered party members by quitting the Republicans after a series of electoral setbacks in recent years.

They have rejoined for the primary, but need to overcome internal resentment for having jumped ship.

In Montreuil-Juigné, Barnier insisted that the party, which has been in the wilderness since the 2012 election defeat of Nicolas Sarkozy, could renew the power it held for decades. Yet polls suggest that all the Republicans contenders were trailing not only Macron but also Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally, and Éric Zemmour, the anti-Islam pundit.

Barnier has been accused in some quarters of being a Eurosceptic, a charge he denies. “No one can contest my European commitment,” he said. “I am a European as well as a patriot.”

Barnier said Macron, who had never stood in an election before winning the presidency, had lacked a “clear vision” when he won power and had taken as long as four years to come up with policies on issues such as crime, immigration and nuclear energy. He was made of sterner stuff, he said. “My hand will not tremble,” he exclaimed.

His words were greeted by a silence broken only by the sound of a ringing smartphone that a party member from a nearby wine-making area of the Loire had forgotten to mute.

It seems, at first glance, that Michel Barnier has almost no chance of winning the presidency (Adam Sage writes).

A poll this week by the Harris Interactive institute found he would attract barely 9 per cent of the vote in the first round of the election if he was the Republicans candidate, behind Emmanuel Macron on 24 per cent, Éric Zemmour on 18 and Marine Le Pen on 16.

Other Republicans would fare slightly better if they represented the party, such as Xavier Bertrand (14) or Valérie Pécresse (10), but neither would get past the first round. The pollsters said the second round would pit the champion of mainstream France — Macron — against a populist challenger, either Le Pen or Zemmour, with the mainstream man winning comfortably.

But such are the complexities of French politics that the findings should be treated with caution.

Will Zemmour, a political novice, prove to be the French Donald Trump, or disappear without trace? Will the polls shift after the Republicans primary?

Barnier believes that if he was the party candidate he would enjoy a swift rise in popularity.

Four televised debates between the Republicans contenders this month could reshape the race, with Bertrand and Pécresse both more at ease on television. All three believe that victory in the primary would start a wave that could carry them into the second round of the election, in April.

And what then? Most analysts believe that any mainstream candidate would defeat a far-right rival in a country where populism is a growing force but not yet in a majority. Also, Le Pen and Zemmour might divide the populist vote, with both eliminated in the first round — allowing two mainstream candidates through to the second.

A Barnier-Macron run-off cannot be excluded. It would pit two men of different ages, different styles but broadly similar pro-European, moderately liberal outlooks against each other. The result would be hard to call. The only certainty in that scenario is that a swathe of the electorate would feel unrepresented.