Prosecutors are demanding a 10-year sentence for the tycoon, who denies any wrongdoing. Given the highly politicised nature of the trial, judges seem certain to convict and impose a sentence of at least five years.
Under the deal, however, Khodorkovsky, 40, could be released as early as next year.
“The Kremlin wants control of Yukos, and Khodorkovsky out of Russia,” said an oil industry source close to the Kremlin. “He almost certainly has money abroad. He could move to London and put it all behind him. But he has to hand over his empire to the state. The alternative will be years in jail.”
Khodorkovsky, whose wealth was estimated in The Sunday Times 2004 Rich List at more than £8 billion, has been in jail since his arrest in October.
Speculation about a possible deal was fuelled by a letter last week in which Yukos officials criticised Khodorkovsky and other former top executives, claiming they had underpaid corporate taxes.
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They also offered to hand some of the company’s assets to the government or to state-run firms in return for the opportunity to avoid bankruptcy.
Yukos lost an appeal on Friday against a claim for £1.85 billion in unpaid taxes, which it says could drive it out of business.