December feels like the cruellest month when you work in 10 Downing Street. The present roster of Number 10 special advisers will certainly attest to this sentiment. However, the professional frustration felt in December at the heart of government is a perennial issue for every administration.
Come the end of the year, a government tends to lose its way. For all the words in a manifesto, policy implementation is hard. Despite the silky skills of the Number 10 grid team, events have a habit of disrupting the news agenda. When Boris Johnson is prime minister — but yearning also to be magpie editor of the morning news conference — matters get harder still.
Throw in parties that never were, wallpaper bills with shifting timelines and an orgy of no-confidence speculation in the Palace of Westminster, and you can be sure that someone in Downing Street has said in recent days that it is time for a relaunch of the People’s Government.
So begins January relaunch planning in the bleak midwinter: an unspoken omerta between Number 10 and the Westminster lobby of journalists. SW1 wants a rest between Christmas and New Year so news management takes precedence.
It is agreed that the prime minister will write an agenda-setting “op-ed” to start the year, slavishly pored over by the duty speechwriter. Nowadays this will be supplemented by a video message fizzing with energy, an appearance on Marr (now Raworth) and perhaps a speech on the first working day back in a marginal seat.
Advertisement
As mere mortals recover from the bloat and switch on their news feeds, the government appears to be back “on the front foot”.
It rarely lasts, and the new year relaunch tends to dissipate quickly. Where it endures, it is because the political operation is working to strong fundamentals. This year, for all the talent that remains in the backroom of this government, I think they will have their work cut out.
First, of course there’s Covid and the Omicron variant. As of this morning, no one can predict the exact picture in our hospitals in the first week of January. However, the transmissibility of this variant, coupled with punctured public health messaging in the past week because of other events, means that there could be some concerning pressures.
The Prime Minister’s message to work from home wherever possible, but still venture out for the Christmas party, is unlikely to be remembered as a triumph of modern communications. Conversely, the “right flank” of the Conservative parliamentary party senses weakness and stands ready to oppose further measures. A reductive lockdown debate is more likely to dominate in the first week back.
Second, the prime minister’s political authority is on the turn. It is easy to fall into hyperbole in commentary and many have made the mistake of writing off Boris Johnson before. However, something appears to be changing.
Advertisement
It has always been priced in that Johnson is a showman, gambler and occasional hoodwinker; it would not have been possible to get Brexit done otherwise. Up to now, though, the British public have always been in on the conceit with him. Recent revelations have loosened this link.
Third, and most importantly for the next election, the Conservative party’s economic policy is ill defined. “Levelling up” is a much used phrase but it obscures difficult choices that the United Kingdom needs to make to be a successful nation.
How are we going to provide Scandinavian public services that voters expect while also being determined to be known as a low-tax state? Do we want to prioritise the cost of living with inflation rearing its head, or should we be front of the pack on climate change with long-term investment? Do we want to put rocket boosters behind the animal spirits of the private sector post Brexit, or should the state take a more interventionist role?
Although most voters won’t think in these esoteric terms, they understand fudge and will consider alternatives if the delivery gap becomes too pronounced.
Structurally, the Conservative party is still the favourite to win the next general election because of Labour’s difficulties in Scotland. Political fundamentals, however, have a habit of changing quickly. If I were planning Boris Johnson’s January relaunch this week, there would be plenty to make me nervous. There may be crueller months still to come.
Advertisement
Nick Hargrave was an adviser to David Cameron and Theresa May, and is co-founding a new consultancy business in January called Strand Partners