SO, DO ENGLAND want to beat Sweden? The Fink Tank Predictor’s computer simulations are crystal clear on the subject. If Germany come second in their group, it would be better for England to lose. Let’s say Germany do come second: England’s chance of winning the World Cup would be 4.7 per cent if they topped their group, but 8.3 per cent if they were runners-up. The difference is huge.
If Germany finish first in group A, on the other hand, it would be better for England to finish first, too. In those circumstances, their chances would be 7 per cent if they topped group B and only 4.7 per cent if they were runners-up.
There’s no question — the best outcome by far is for both England and Germany to fail today. In case you’re wondering how results might affect either team’s progress, the frightening portents lie below.
ENGLAND 1st, GERMANY 1st
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England: Round of 16 v Ecuador
Quarter-finals v Portugal/Holland
Semi-finals v Brazil
Final v Argentina/Germany
Germany: Round of 16 v Sweden
Quarter-finals v Argentina
Semi-finals v Italy/France
Final v England/Brazil
ENGLAND 1st, GERMANY 2nd
Round of 16: England v Germany
Then the winners could face . . .
Quarter-finals v Portugal/Holland
Semi-finals v Brazil
Final v Argentina
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ENGLAND 2nd, GERMANY 1st
Round of 16: England v Germany
Then the winner could face . . .
Quarter-finals v Argentina
Semi-finals v Italy/France
Final v Brazil
ENGLAND 2nd, GERMANY 2nd
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England: Round of 16 v Ecuador
Quarter-finals v Argentina
Semi-finals v Italy/France
Final v Brazil
Germany: Round of 16 v Sweden
Quarter-finals v Portugal/Holland
Semi-finals v Brazil
Final v England. Or Argentina. Or Italy. Or France. Bit difficult to guess, really.
The Fink Tank
ECUADOR LOOK good but Germany, despite their shaky defence, are better, and they are at home. An Ecuador win is only a 15 per cent shot. A German victory is a 65 per cent probability.
Sweden and England is closer. If both teams play to win, the chances are 44 per cent of an England win and 26 per cent of a draw. Trinidad & Tobago have a 3.3 per cent chance of reaching the knockout stages and a 13 per cent chance of beating Paraguay. There is a 65 per cent chance of a Paraguay win.
In the “going-home” derby, Poland are 59 per cent favourites to beat Costa Rica (who have a 21 per cent win chance).