It is crunch time for Justin Trudeau as he looks to shore up his support with a sweeping new agenda after an underwhelming snap election in September.
The Canadian prime minister inaugurated his new cabinet on a drizzly day in Ottawa last week, a month after voters denied him a parliamentary majority. The contrast to 2015, when a fresh-faced Trudeau announced his gender-balanced cabinet after winning power and delighting liberals worldwide, was stark.
There are indications that Trudeau, 49, wants to recast himself as a bold, progressive leader after failing for years to fully shake off a lightweight image and a string of bruising ethics scandals. Amid rumours that he may have fought his final election, this could be his last chance, even though there is no limit to how many terms a Canadian prime minister can serve.
September’s unpopular election failed to change the make-up of Canada’s House of Commons. Despite Trudeau casting it as the most significant choice since the Second World War, voters shrugged, handing him two extra seats but leaving him 11 short of the 170 required for a majority. He will still depend on the support of smaller parties to govern, chiefly the left-wing New Democratic Party. His vote share was the lowest to ever secure victory in Canada.
The opposition Conservatives, now in turmoil, won the popular vote for the second time in a row, coming from far behind to leave the race on a knife-edge before election day. Trudeau can thank Maxime Bernier, 58, the bellicose leader of the right-wing populist People’s Party, for shaving off Conservative support in key ridings.
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If the prime minister felt humbled, he did not show it when announcing his cabinet. Instead, he promised to slash greenhouse gas emissions, build affordable housing and pursue reconciliation with indigenous people. With the pandemic almost in the rear-view mirror, he is shifting to key agenda items such as mental health, paid sick leave and C$10-a-day (£6) childcare.
There are roadblocks along the way. Inflation recently reached a 20-year high in Canada, and Trudeau must handle rising anger in the so-called oil patch, a conservative heartland where many blame the prime minister, an avowed environmentalist, for the slow collapse of Canada’s energy industry. He must also re-engage with China, after the diplomatic row involving the eventual release of a senior Huawei executive by Canada and two Canadian “hostages” held by Beijing.
“One of the things we saw very clearly in this election was that Canadians are expecting big things to be done by parliament and by this government,” Trudeau said last week. “With a refreshed and reinvigorated team around me, I’m really excited about what we’re going to be able to accomplish.”
Analysts are divided on whether Trudeau is in a stronger position. A repeat election is not on the cards, as the rival parties are in no financial position to fight another. However, the Conservatives, who retain control of certain committees, will do their best to cripple his agenda.
Lori Turnbull, a politics professor at Dalhousie University in Nova Scotia, said that Trudeau might simply ignore parliament as much as possible. In practice, she said, that would mean “fewer siting days, closing debate earlier, not taking into account in any meaningful way the concerns of the opposition”.
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Trudeau’s cabinet choices suggest serious intent, particularly on the subject of climate change. He appointed Steven Guilbeault, 51, as environment minister, a former Greenpeace employee who was arrested in 2001 for scaling the CN Tower in Toronto, then the world’s tallest building, to demand action on climate change. Jonathan Wilkinson, 56, who previously worked in green tech and served as environment minister, will oversee Canada’s oil production as natural resources minister.
The appointments prompted uproar in Alberta, the recession-plagued, oil-producing province where a lack of pipeline capacity has prevented product from getting to market. Canada is the world’s fourth-largest oil producer.
Jamie Ellerton, a Conservative strategist and former adviser to Jason Kenney, the Alberta premier, said that Trudeau’s tendency to over-promise and under-deliver could calm Conservatives. “If pronouncements and platitudes made for successful governance and policy, Trudeau would not have just gotten re-elected with the weakest electoral mandate in Canadian history,” Ellerton said.
Elsewhere, Trudeau appointed Anita Anand, 54, to lead the military out of a sexual misconduct scandal that has engulfed its top brass. The new defence minister, previously tasked with vaccine procurement, is no former soldier but rather a Toronto law professor and governance expert.
Chrystia Freeland, 53, widely tipped as a possible Trudeau successor, keeps her roles as deputy prime minister and finance minister.
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There have already been signs of the poor judgment that has tainted Trudeau’s tenure. Months after more than a thousand unmarked graves were found at former abuse-ridden indigenous residential schools, Trudeau’s government has appealed against a ruling ordering it to pay billions of dollars to indigenous children harmed by the welfare system.
To make matters worse, he was widely panned for taking a family holiday on the inaugural National Day for Truth and Reconciliation.
Six years after winning office Trudeau, the son of the formidable former prime minister Pierre Trudeau, has been chastened by ethics scandals, images of him wearing blackface as a younger man and two failed attempts at a majority.
If he is to leave a lasting legacy the man once dubbed the “Paris Hilton of Canadian politics” must turn words into action.
“He could make a whole lot of his last four years and make it his last term and go out on a high note where he takes concrete action, rather than the kind of virtue-signalling he has been accused of,” said Turnbull. “But he seems completely undeterred by the results of this election.”
