Ministers were warned yesterday to prepare the Scottish health service for a looming cold weather crisis after new figures revealed that winter deaths hit a 15-year high last year.
A total of 22,011 people died last winter, 3,336 more than the previous year, which had recorded the lowest mortality rate for 60 years, and more than in any winter since 1999-2000.
Ministers stressed that the overall trend of winter deaths remained on the way down. But health experts and opposition politicians warned that, with early forecasts suggesting that Scotland would suffer its coldest and harshest winter for many years, the health service could soon be pushed into crisis.
The Scottish government is already under pressure over the performance of casualty departments, particularly at Queen Elizabeth hospital, Glasgow, where an emergency team was sent in to improve the situation.
Separate statistics published yesterday show that the A&E still has major issues with waiting times.
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Family doctors have been warning for months of growing strain on the health service, particularly as Scotland’s population is ageing. Many elderly people suffer from multiple health conditions, any of which can be exacerbated if they catch flu during the winter and this is one of the main reasons why death rates rise in the coldest, darkest months of the year.
Dr Peter Bennie, chairman of the British Medical Association in Scotland, said preparations had to be made before winter struck. He said: “The NHS in Scotland is under increasing strain as a result of growing demands on the health service, constrained resources and unfilled medical posts. That pressure will only intensify over winter and in the short term it is essential that everything possible is done to prepare for it.”
Jackson Carlaw, for the Scottish Conservatives, said the figures should serve as a warning to ministers. He said: “It is not clear why last year’s milder winter should have seen so many deaths and it would be irresponsible to indulge in rash speculation. However, what is fundamentally important is that ministers ensure that Scotland’s NHS is fit and ready to cope with whatever health emergencies arise this winter, to ensure that everyone gets the best possible advice and that emergency departments are properly resourced to respond effectively.”
Jim Hume, for the Liberal Democrats, said: “We know A&E targets have been missed and pressure on services will only increase in coming months. With predictions that this winter could be the coldest on record, ministers need to ensure our NHS staff get the support they need to keep people healthy, particularly older Scots who are vulnerable to winter infections.”
Catherine Calderwood, Scotland’s chief medical officer, said: “While the number of winter deaths is the total that occur throughout the community and are not specifically related to healthcare, it is crucial our NHS prepares thoroughly for the extra pressures winter clearly brings.”
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Labour seized on figures showing that bed-blocking rose last month. Jackie Baillie, for Labour, said: “Too many elderly patients are stuck in hospital even though they are clinically ready to go home. That’s bad for the patient, but also costs a fortune in extra care. It’s time for the SNP government to plan for the long term on our NHS.”