David Cameron has been accused of mounting a “relentless campaign of fear” by a member of his cabinet over claims that it could take up to ten years to negotiate an exit from the EU if Britain voted to leave.
Downing Street was criticised yesterday after publishing The Process for Withdrawing From the EU. The 23-page dossier warns that many components of EU membership, including the financial relationship, legal ties and trade deals, would make the talks highly complex.
Mr Cameron was also attacked for undermining Britain’s negotiating position if the public voted to leave the EU. The new document said that if Britain voted for Brexit, the prime minister would automatically trigger the two-year exit procedure outlined under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.
However, Vote Leave said in a statement: “There is no legal obligation in the European Union Referendum Act 2015 for the government to trigger Article 50 immediately after the vote.
“This is based on pure assertion and does not reflect the view or material produced by those advocating a ‘leave’ vote.
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“The British people will expect the government to maximise its flexibility during negotiations to get the best deal for Britain, not to arbitrarily commit to one exit mechanism on an arbitrary date.”
This was disputed by Raoul Ruparel, co-director of Open Europe, who said: “While there is no legal requirement to trigger Article 50, ultimately the other EU states have little reason to negotiate over exit issues until Article 50 is triggered.
“In fact, since the mechanism gives the rest of the EU an upper hand due to the two-year time limit on the talks, it would be in their rational self-interest to only negotiate once it has been triggered.”
The document concludes that it would be “difficult to complete a successful negotiation” to work out Britain’s future within the two-year timeframe set out by Article 50 and suggested that it could take up to ten years. It also made clear that leaving the EU might affect the ability of British citizens to retire in another EU country, to work in the rest of Europe and the right to rely on European small claims procedures to reclaim up to €2,000.
The Cabinet Office report is the latest document to set out the dangers of leaving, saying that uncertainty after a vote to leave would “hit financial markets, investment and the value of the pound”.
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A YouGov poll for The Times last week suggested that the fear campaign is starting to affect the public attitude, with a sharp fall in support for ‘leave’.
Chris Grayling, the Tory leader of the Commons, told the BBC: “People will not be impressed with this relentless campaign of fear. Claims that it will take twice as long to sort out a free trade deal with the EU as it did to win the Second World War are clearly ludicrous. There’s a free-trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and Britain will still be part of it after we vote ‘leave’.”
Priti Patel, the employment minister, also criticised Downing Street, condemning moves to restrict documents relating to EU matters as “unconstitutional”.
Guidance to civil servants says that they must block government papers to ministers when they have “a bearing on the referendum question” and allies of the prime minister are resisting pressure to explain what this means. Ministers who support Brexit say that they have been denied access to documents and briefings.
Crispin Blunt, a Conservative former minister, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, said that the government’s aim was to resolve the issue of Britain’s role in the world one way or the othe. “That question will only hold if this is seen to be fair and all of this runs against that strategic objective.”
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The way trade winds blow
A Commonwealth Free Trade Agreement is the dream of many who want Britain to leave the EU and regain the power to forge international trading agreements and revive historic alliances.
Most trade experts dismiss as unrealistic the challenge of reaching an agreement with 52 countries, especially as Britain would want to prioritise links with the likes of the US, China, Japan and the EU.
However, Commonwealth members hold the key for a post-Brexit UK trade policy.
Canada
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Reached agreement with the EU in 2014 on a free trade deal after more than five years of talks but it has yet to be ratified. It covers all industrial goods and most farm produce except poultry.
Canada’s prime deal is Nafta, the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement with the US and Mexico. Some US republicans think that an independent Britain could join Nafta.
Canada struck a deal with South Korea in 2014, four years after the EU’s own deal with the country.
Australia
Australia, having cut its own farm subsidies, concluded deals with Singapore in 2003, Thailand in 2005, Chile in 2009 and Malaysia, a Commonwealth member, in 2013.
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The Australia-US free trade agreement of 2005 took only a year to negotiate, with the IMF estimating a boost to US imports of $5.25 billion a year and to Australian exports of $3 billion a year.
New Zealand
It took three years and 15 rounds of talks for New Zealand to clinch the first free trade agreement by any OECD country with China in 2008.
New Zealand’s most important trade deal is with Australia. Made in 1983, it led to other deals including the Trans-pacific partnership.
