It is safe to assume that Brexit will be the biggest geopolitical challenge facing Ireland next year and probably for a lot longer.
The enormity of the country’s single biggest trading partner leaving the EU should not be underestimated, yet the government’s response remains disjointed and underwhelming.
One business leader put it succintly when speaking to The Times: “You don’t want to keep warning about Brexit because we will talk ourselves into a downturn,” he said.
“But the best way of ensuring that there is confidence in the future is that the government has a plan [to deal with Brexit] and right now that isn’t there.”
It should be noted that one of the biggest challenges Brexit poses is knowing what it involves. That will not become clear until next March when the British government intends to trigger Article 50.
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Over the past week senior British politicians have said that a transitional deal may be needed to complete exit negotiations which, in theory at least, suggests that the prospects of a hard Brexit are receding.
Speaking before the Oireachtas agriculture committee on Tuesday, Jim Power, the economist, said that the best course of action for the Irish government was to prepare for a hard Brexit and treat anything else as a bonus.
Mr Power told the committee that Britain’s withdrawal from the EU could have a potentially devastating impact on the agrifood sector, as more than 40 per cent of its exports go to the UK.
The overall implications for Ireland arising from Brexit are profound. There will be some benefits such as increased flows of foreign direct investment, but only if competitiveness can be improved. That means making Dublin and other cities attractive to investors. The lack of suitable housing, office space and international schools are obvious problems that need to be addressed.
Another matter of concern is the lack of regulatory staff at the Central Bank, which is a barrier to attracting financial firms away from London to Dublin.
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The main losers in Brexit are agrifood firms and the retail sector, particularly near the border region. In other words, Brexit could have significant implications for economic and spatial development across the country. That is why it is essential that the government creates a Brexit minister and department. It would address some glaring deficiencies in the government’s existing contingency planning.
It was a mistake to move the EU Affairs unit out of the department of an taoiseach and into the department of foreign affairs. The announcement was made last summer, although the physical move wasn’t completed until this month.
Not only was it disruptive for one of the most important Brexit-facing government units at a particularly sensitive time, it was also unnecessary. The EU Affairs unit was moved from the DFA to the department of an taoiseach in 2011. It mirrored a trend across most member states to underline the increasing importance of EU affairs.
The new department would be responsible for co-ordinating all Brexit related activities across all government departments and state agencies and to ensure that there is coherency when it comes to policy.
Last Monday, the House of Lords EU committee released a report, which recommended that Ireland and Britain sign a bilateral agreement to cover areas such as trade and the common travel area. On Monday evening, Michael Noonan, the finance minister, dismissed the idea on the basis that there could be no side deals during Brexit negotiations.
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A senior government source, however, told The Times that Mr Noonan was too quick to dismiss the report as it contained a number of proposals that could have benefitted the country hugely.
If there was a Brexit department, the response from government would be more considered and informed.