If you’re among the record number of people booking your holiday this month, your meteorological expectations are probably pretty simple. You want snow in the mountains in winter, sunshine on the beaches in the summer and as little rain as possible without upsetting the farmers. Until very recently, that wasn’t a big ask, but, as 2022 showed, the global climate is changing faster than we thought, forcing us to rethink when and where we travel.
Last year gave us an idea of the scale of the crisis. In March, Australia had more rainfall in a week than Britain’s annual total, forcing tens of thousands from their homes; flooding in Pakistan killed more than 1,700 people. Europe experienced the worst drought in 500 years, triggering wildfires that destroyed more than 3,000 square miles of forest in 23 countries.
At 3pm on July 19 in Coningsby, Lincolnshire, thermometers hit 40.3C: the UK’s highest ever recorded temperature, while a month later Cordoba recorded a new national record of 47.6C for Spain as rolling heatwaves brought conditions not expected for another decade.
It could have been even worse had it not been for the cooling effect of the meteorological phenomenon known as La Niña — but that won’t help us in 2023.
“For next year our climate model is indicating an end to the three consecutive years of the La Niña state,” said Nick Dunstone of the Met Office. “This shift is likely to lead to global temperatures in 2023 being warmer than 2022.” And 2022, the Met Office has confirmed, was the hottest year on record.
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That’s something to consider as you choose your holiday destination. Right now, half of French ski slopes are closed due to a lack of snow. In the Pyrenees, Domaines Skiables de France reports that 10 out of 30 resorts haven’t opened.
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https://www.thetimes.com/travel/destinations/uk/england/london/places-to-cool-off In Austria, conditions in the lower resorts resemble those of a warm spring, with some slopes snow-free to 2,000m. In Switzerland, buses have been arranged to take skiers to higher areas such as Arosa-Lenzerheide, where about half the pistes are open. In Mürren in the Bernese Oberland tourism director Rachel Arkin suggests visiting a new virtual-reality centre where, she says: “people can have a virtual snowball fight”. If you’d prefer a real one, you might want to book somewhere higher than 2,000m.
As for the summer holidays, a poll of 2,000 British travellers by InsureandGo found that 71 per cent believed destinations including Spain, Greece and Turkey would be too hot to visit by 2027.
In Spain, where a nationwide drought is heading into its second year, scientists say large areas are turning into desert. Cristina Linares of the Carlos III Health Institute warned that “it will be impossible to stay in the south and in the interior because you will burn”, urging tourists “to go to the north to rest better”. The cooler, wetter provinces of Asturias, Basque Country, Cantabria and Galicia are becoming more popular.
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On Christmas Eve the mercury reached 23C in Bormes-Les-Mimosas on the Côte d’Azur. It was a startling end to a year that brought France’s second-hottest summer since 1900, causing 2,816 deaths.
In the eastern Mediterranean, Greek temperatures hit 37C in May; Antalya reached 41C in October half-term. A report in Turkey’s Journal of Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality in 2020 warned that the country “may lose its climatic attractiveness in coastal regions”.
As rising temperatures, sea levels and environmental dangers reduce the Med’s appeal, some say tour operators and holidaymakers will look to the north. A 2015 study predicted that Finland’s summer would last a month longer by the end of this decade, and it’s already warm enough in Sweden to make wine.
More realistically, though, it’s the places we once wrote off as perhaps too temperate that are now beginning to shine. Not just the UK but also the Côte d’Opale of the Pas de Calais; the Belgian Riviera, between De Panne in the south and Knokke-Heist in the north; the vast beaches of the Dutch coast; and even the north German state of Schleswig-Holstein, where once-chilly Baltic resorts are becoming measurably warmer. In 2022 seaside towns such as Eckenforde and Timmendorfer enjoyed more sunshine, significantly less rain, highs in the mid 20s (39.1C on July 20) and average temperatures two degrees higher than for the years 1961 to 1990.
But if you’re sticking with the Med, the safest option is to avoid high summer and to travel in spring and autumn. For some, that’s possible, but the archaic rules governing school holidays force many to holiday at the hottest and most hazardous time of the year. With 50C summers just around the corner, those old school rules need to change.
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Are you worried about travel this summer? Will you rearrange your plans? Let us know below
