Europe worries for ‘defenceless’ Ireland amid hybrid warfare threat

“That’s a good question. I haven’t really thought about that,” Varadkar said, laughing nervously.

The dialogue encapsulates the rationale behind 20 years of strategic decisions by successive Irish administrations, which have resulted in a gradual erosion of the capabilities of the Defence Forces, rendering it incapable of fulfilling its core mandate to protect the state. The issue is one intertwined in foreign policy, international security and Ireland’s stated position of neutrality.

As Varadkar and his government are discovering, the ramifications of their policies and underinvestment in the military are now manifesting as Ireland grapples with an array of internal and external threats that have exposed its vulnerability. Among them are the threat posed by a resurgent imperialist Russia and the possible weakening of Nato if Donald Trump is elected US president in November.

European countries and think tanks can barely contain their contempt for the government’s failure to maintain a cohesive military, given Ireland’s position on Europe’s western border.

A report published last month by Policy Exchange, a British think tank, accused Ireland of “freeloading” when it comes to European defence. It noted how Ireland had become a “back-door” security threat to Britain from Russia, China and Iran. Gustav Gressel, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said most European countries viewed Ireland as a “free-rider”.

“Ireland no longer has any capable defence force. Europe is particularly worried about Ireland’s vulnerability to hybrid war. Its inability to protect data cables and its counter-intelligence capabilities, or even its airspace, because it has defence capability issues, is now a major concern,” Gressel said.

The facts speak for themselves. In 2011 the strength of the Defence Forces was 10,500. Personnel numbers fell to 9,279 in 2014. By 2019 its strength stood at 8,659, comprising 7,002 army personnel, 721 air corps personnel and 936 naval service personnel.

Its strength as of January was 7,504. Of these, 6,080 are army personnel, 692 are air corps personnel and 732 are in the naval service. It should have a strength of 9,589. The Reserve Defence Forces has a strength of 1,407.

The slow decline is attributed to government policy, underinvestment and poor pay and conditions for soldiers as well as the closure of barracks around the country as part of reform programmes.

“The Defence Forces have been deliberately run down,” said Michael McDowell, a former attorney-general and justice minister, who has become a vocal critic in the Seanad of the government’s defence policy.

“The common denominator is that Fine Gael has been in office during this period. They were the first political party not to appoint a defence minister. The closure of barracks around the country has also meant the reserve forces have effectively disappeared. It is a shadow of its former self,” McDowell said.

“There was a time when there were at least 20,000 reservists, who could in an emergency aim a weapon and come to the aid of the government. The only people who can do that now outside of the army and gardai are Dublin gangland criminals. We have naval vessels tied up for months and not put out to sea as we have no one to crew them. I could go on,” he added.

The problem is desperately acute in the Naval Service, which has a fleet of just four offshore patrol vessels and two large patrol vessels. These are responsible for patrolling Ireland’s exclusive economic zone, a huge swathe of territory that extends out across the Atlantic Ocean and includes parts of the Irish and Celtic seas. The vessels are confined to port most of the time due to manpower shortages.

Ireland does not even have the ability to detect submarines operating off the west coast, which has given rise to concerns about the likelihood of a sabotage attack by Russia on subsea cables that criss-cross the Atlantic. It relies on Nato to police its economic waters.

Despite the personnel and equipment shortages, the military continues to provide critical services including air ambulance and drug interceptions when required

ALAMY

The Air Corps has both fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters but it too has been denuded of personnel. The corps has responsibilities, including the provision of a coastguard service. It relies on the UK’s Royal Air Force to intercept Russian fighter jets when they enter Irish-controlled airspace. “We can’t even see them as we don’t have radar,” one military source said.

The government is conscious of the gravity of the situation but has adopted a dual policy of ignoring its critics or silencing them.

In 2022 it published a report by the Commission on the Defence Forces, which reached startling findings. It compared Ireland with eight other European countries of similar wealth and size, and concluded that Ireland spent about a third of what its peer nations did on defence.

It also proposed a suite of options to improve the dire situation but the bulk of these have yet to be implemented, said Conor King, a spokesman for the Representative Organisation of Commissioned Officers.

“Since the commission delivered its report we have dropped another 1,000 in personnel. It’s as a result of prioritising onerous and time-consuming recruitment over cost-effective retention, which hasn’t served the organisation well,” King said.

He noted how last week the Department of Defence attempted to introduce amendments to primary legislation to prohibit representative associations from criticising any form of government policy, an unusual move in a retention and morale crisis. McDowell described this as sinister.

Despite the personnel and equipment shortages, the military continues to provide critical services including air ambulance and drug interceptions when required. The special forces were notably called into action last September when they descended from the Air Corps helicopter on to the MV Matthew to intercept more than two tonnes of cocaine off the Cork coast. The Defence Forces are also continuing to deploy troops to UN peacekeeping missions.

Cathal Berry, an independent TD who served with the Army Ranger Wing, said the “destruction” of the Defence Forces had left Ireland defenceless because the government did not understand the need for a properly equipped military, or the concept of playing a role in European security.

“We are a neutral country which is utterly defenceless. What sets us apart is that unlike other neutral countries, we can’t defend ourselves,” said Berry, who pointed to Finland as a country that had one of the largest armies in Europe — a force built up due to its proximity to Russia before Helsinki joined Nato following the invasion of Ukraine.

“I watched the taoiseach speak at the Munich Security Conference. It was perhaps the first time he had been exposed to an informed audience and the spin didn’t work,” Berry said.

“He can fool his own public but this isn’t washing with Europe any more. Europe backed Ireland on Brexit but we are doing absolutely nothing to help Europe. Ireland is like the guy who goes to the pub and never buys his friends a round of drinks. We no longer have a military that is capable of standing on its own two feet,” he added.

Berry believes the malaise over the Defence Forces is not just confined to the government but swathes of the opposition. “The opposition are just as bad. Some of them would take pleasure in defunding the military and winding it down even more,” he said.

The government is trying to repair the damage it has caused. It allocated €1.23 billion in defence funding in this year’s budget — an increase of €21 million compared with 2023. It has promised to increase this to €1.5 billion by 2028, the largest boost to the defence budget in the history of the state.

Will this be enough? Most analysts believe it’s impossible to say as Europe is facing a multiplicity of threats including those posed by climate change, global migration and the deteriorating relations between the United States and China, to name but a few. Russia remains the most pressing threat as its armed forces and intelligence services are active in Ireland’s land, sea, air, digital and space domains.

“If Russia does choose to attack or threaten the EU, Ireland is the location where it’s likely to happen as it’s so vulnerable,” one analyst said.

“One could argue that by running down the Defence Forces, Varadkar has placed his faith in Vladimir Putin and the hope that Russia would never conduct a hybrid attack on Ireland for strategic purposes. Given what’s unfolding across Europe, that’s a risky gamble.”