India have won only three Test series in England, none of them longer than three matches. The most recent of those was in 2007 when a team of which I was part were denied victory in the first Test by the weather. Since then, their Test side have come to this country on three occasions with optimism and confidence but the balance sheet reads: lost 11, won 2.
My experience of playing in those series is that, even when behind in the game or series, England always have a chance against India on home soil — so long as the ball is moving around.
In 2011, India came here as the No 1 side in the world and were beaten 4-0. The crucial period came in the second Test when, leading 1-0, we were bowled out for 221 and the tourists were 267 for four until a trademark Stuart Broad spell, including a hat-trick, tilted the match and series in our favour. Three years later, we were 1-0 down after two Tests, including a wretched defeat at Lord’s, yet won the next three. In 2018, my last Test series, victories in low-scoring games at Edgbaston and the Rose Bowl proved decisive.
India have a strong batting line-up but so did they on each of those three previous tours. Virat Kohli did well in 2018, averaging just under 60, but none of Ajinkya Rahane, Cheteshwar Pujara, Rishabh Pant or KL Rahul — all of whom we can expect to play this summer — averaged more than 40. Stuart Broad and James Anderson must be the first names on the teamsheet because they have proved themselves adept against this top order in the past.
That is the good news for England fans. Now let’s temper it with a few uncomfortable facts. The most obvious one is that Joe Root’s team were poor in their most recent series, against New Zealand. Being denied the likes of Ben Stokes and Jos Buttler significantly weakened their hand but that should not paper over the cracks, particularly in the top order.
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I suspect we will see the same top three of Rory Burns, Dom Sibley and Zak Crawley because they (just about) have enough credit in the bank from the past 18 months but the short-term trends are worrying. At No 4, Root found himself coming to the crease far too early in India in the winter but that was the first time that the trio above him had played a series there and some of the pitches were interesting, to say the least, so perhaps we can excuse them. In the two Tests against New Zealand, there was an average of 40 on the board when the second wicket fell.
That is not good enough. The Kiwis had a good bowling attack but India’s are better. In fact, it is probably the most potent and best balanced line-up with the ball they have ever brought here. I have written before about how highly I rate Jasprit Bumrah but let’s just repeat: he is quick, difficult to pick up with his funny action and bowls very few bad balls.
Taking the new ball with him are likely to be Ishant Sharma and Mohammed Shami. Sharma is a very experienced campaigner (more than 100 Tests and more than 300 wickets) who averages less than 20 with the ball since turning 30. I must have played and missed against Shami what felt like a thousand times in 2018. Seam and swing-friendly English conditions will suit him down to the ground.
Then there are the spinners. I suspect we will see more of Ravichandran Ashwin than Ravindra Jadeja over the next few weeks but he alone will be handful. A record in England of 14 wickets at just over 30 in six Tests does not sound impressive but he looked as though he was carrying an injury during the four matches here three years ago. What sticks in my mind from back then is how Ashwin dismissed me at Edgbaston. It was only his second over and the ninth of the match, but having tested me with a couple of balls that slid on, he found one that drifted in then spun past my bat to clip off stump.
Before then, I would never have backed him to beat me on the outside edge and that was testament to him giving the ball more of a rip. Up until then he relied more on the pitch than the hand for his turn — probably a consequence of growing up in India where the surfaces offer more assistance. To succeed as an off spinner in England, you have to be willing to get some blisters on your fingers because the wickets are seldom raging turners. It will not be enough for England to turn up and depend on green tops and dark skies.
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The withdrawal of Stokes has also scuppered the plans that would have allowed them to play five batsmen, plus Stokes and Buttler, then four bowlers, including a spinner. It puts more pressure on the top order to deliver. If they don’t, the selectors may think they have used up all their credit.
England v India
Aug 4-8 First Test, Trent Bridge
Aug 12-16 Second Test, Lord’s
Aug 25-29 Third Test, Headingley
Sept 2-6 Fourth Test, the Oval
Sept 10-14 Fifth Test, Old Trafford
All matches live on Sky Sports
