If it all goes horribly wrong for England in Rome today then, by comparison, the collapse against Wales last week - during which the most famous player the sport in Europe has ever produced ballooned a pass into an uninhabited nothingness and the team showed leadership qualities which would have rendered Captain Bligh on HMS Bounty a benevolent success - will appear an almost unmitigated triumph.
Going into this weekend I fervently believed we needed more evidence on all six teams before we conclude that performances last weekend represented their true selves. Brian Ashton's England deserve today's opportunity to atone. Yet if something awful does happen to England, if they lose or eke out a stumbling victory, then the level of doubt surrounding this team will again reach the sorry peaks of the aftermath of the thrashing by South Africa in the pool in the World Cup, and we will wonder once more if Ashton can forge a unit from his coaching team of clashing ideas and temperaments.
I expect no disasters. Any English followers in a grim mood at breakfast round the Piazza Navona this morning should get a grip. England average over 46 points a match at Stadio Flaminio and, crucially, I do not believe Italy in their hearts expect to win and they are not only playing today without the heroic pillar Marco Bortolami, the injured captain, but are also trying to play without a kicking game at fly-half.
You can imagine the engaging and forceful character that is Nick Mallett examining game after game and tape after tape and taking advice from expert after expert, after he arrived in Rome as Italy's coach, and with a growing panic turning to his coaching staff. "Lads, surely, we must have a fly-half somewhere. Mustn't we? Lads?" Well, he has ignored the flaky Ramiro Pez, who can nail a punt 60m with a flick of the ankle and then mis-hit the next six kicks. And, erm, that's it.
How the powerful and passionate Italian pack would drool over a long kicking game to nurse them; and to deliver high kicks above and behind Lesley Vainikolo, making his first start today, with obvious power, but a poor workrate and the turning circle of an old bus. Instead, Andrea Masi, the world-class centre shoehorned into the No 10 jersey, can hardly kick the skin from a rice pudding. How ironic that Masi made his Test debut in the alien jersey in Ireland, and was a fly-half who never kicked in the land of the fly-halves who never pass. If England are to lose then how, exactly, are Italy going to score the points to beat them? It would be a seismic shock today if Italy scored more than two tries. Never fear.
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It is not as if England are a scoring machine against good defences, of course, and at least Italy appear to have a defensive shape and hitting power about them. More than ever and especially with the loss of five players, this England team strikes me as a John the Baptist outfit - they are there not to fulfill a destiny themselves, but to make us excited about the next coming, the happy future, the next England team. The loss of Mike Tindall, Lewis Moody and Andrew Sheridan robs the team of its dynamism, its muzzle power and vibrant players. Paul Sackey, Simon Shaw and James Haskell have a surge in their play but the rest of the squad is an earnest and possibly unfocused holding operation of worthies, not world-class winners.
The loss of poor Tindall, probably for the whole tournament, is a headache. The footballing core has gone. Jonny Wilkinson needs to step up his game massively. He is, of course, dependent on his back row and others to carry ball and to take away the Italian team, but he will have enough good possession. Toby Flood, alongside him, is another whose reputation is outstripping his achievement. It is all very well being a calm footballer. It is palpably not enough. Jake White, the World Cup-win-ning South African coach, judges the greatness of teams by the number of players in it who would make a world XV. It sounds an odd measurement but it is valid. Is Flood, whippet-thin, on the verge of the world XV? Is Iain Balshaw? Andy Gomarsall? Wilkinson? No, no, no and definitely not.
England have to play at high pace, even if it does not come naturally. They must keep Italy running, and bewilder them with a range of targets at every attack and by offloading in the tackle - preferably, and unlike last Saturday, to somebody coming strongly, not skulking behind the carrier hoping to be ignored. If England drop the pace, if they allow the game to be enveloped in the bear hugs of Martin Castro-giovanni and Andrea Lo Cicero and if they allow the splendid Sergio Parisse to run at them on a narrow front then they will have gone to Rome to play as the Italians do, and will feel like they are treading in very heavy going.
It would be surprising if there was a significant advantage either way in the tight forward phases, especially since Tim Payne is a thoroughly decent replacement up front for Sheridan and Steve Borthwick must disrupt Italy's lineout. In Haskell, Michael Lipman, Nick Easter and Simon Shaw, you would expect enough powerful carrying to set Italy on to the back foot.
Admittedly, if England do start moving forward with purpose, then the game will be played in the lap of the gods. Can Wilkinson and Flood really release the fast men outside them, drawing consistency from Balshaw and drawing on the new appreciation of the angles from Vainikolo? It is possible, if things do click, that even this weakened England will win well.
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This first Italian home game of the season is, obviously, not to be trusted by the visitors. The players thrilled their country last season. Newspaper front pages and national news programmes that had never before seen rugby were suddenly joyous with Azzurri glories and with the nobility of the sport.
Italy's overall curve is heading upwards, the numbers who play the sport in their country is ballooning. But a combination of the home fly-half, to whom kicking is an alien activity, and the visiting hurt and embarrassment after last week's Twickenham debacle, will surely bring an England win. If it does not then the rest of the tournament will be played out to the teeth-juddering sound of alarm bells.