Nick Mallett’s decision effectively to concede defeat in his attempt to become the next England head coach would seem to have left the way clear for Stuart Lancaster to be named as Martin Johnson’s permanent successor sooner rather than later.
Within minutes of the 30-9 defeat of Ireland at Twickenham, Mallett had tweeted from South Africa: “It would take a very brave CEO to displace Stuart Lancaster.” He added on television: “You can’t see the RFU wanting to change a coach when you look at the team and how happy they are.”
Asked for his reaction, Lancaster, the interim head coach, remained coy. “I don’t know who else is involved in the process and that’s the truth,” he said on Saturday night. “There’s been lots of opinions, lots positive, some less so. It’s nice when people say nice things, no doubt about it, but I tend to make sure our messages are kept internal.”
Few would disagree with Mallett or deny that Lancaster has earned the right to take over. But the nagging feeling persists that the process may provide one last twist. Among them is the spectre that the last has not been heard of Jake White.
The easy thing for Ian Ritchie, the RFU chief executive, to do would be to bow to public opinion and that of pretty much everyone else, and rubberstamp Lancaster’s appointment.
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But to make a decision on the back of a wave of emotion and euphoria would be wrong. Ritchie will let the dust settle, and in his assessment and analysis he will be forensic, cold and calculating, however well regarded Lancaster might be.
Lancaster and Mallett will be interviewed for a final time this week, unless the latter withdraws. Lancaster’s candidacy has echoes of the tortoise and the hare. He started way behind Mallett, but quietly and methodically he has made up ground, gone about his business and engineered results. He has also had a powerful ally in Sir Ian McGeechan, who is one of Ritchie’s trusted advisers.
There is a sense that Ritchie remains to be convinced by Lancaster, or at best that he might need more support around him. Ritchie knows that this is a crucial appointment and that his neck will be on the line if it goes wrong.
Much store has been set by how England perform on home soil at the 2015 World Cup, so much that the RFU cannot afford a mistake. It might be that a compromise is reached and that Mallett and Lancaster will work together, with Lancaster in effect continuing to serve his coaching apprenticeship. That, or Lancaster would have to agree to an expansion of his coaches.
Ritchie has made clear that the make-up of that “team within a team” is of the utmost importance. Therein lies a problem for Lancaster, who cannot be guaranteed that Andy Farrell, back at Saracens, would be released by the club, however large a cheque the RFU might wave at them.
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But there is another issue. Farrell and Lancaster have worked on attack and defensive strategy. Defence has been pretty sound, the scrum under Graham Rowntree purposeful and intimidating. It is in the area of attack where least progress has been made.
It is the most difficult area to overhaul in a short time, but we have to be brutally honest. On Saturday — the conditions notwithstanding — England did not look like scoring a try off the back of dominant set-piece play.
In January, Lancaster made a point of saying that he wanted to see the end of two midfield bashers, in preference for a second playmaker. It could be argued that he does not have one.
For all Owen Farrell’s poise, phlegmatic personality, goal-kicking and tackling, his critics wonder whether the 20-year-old has the pace, vision and distribution skills for an international fly half.
Brian Moore, the commentator and former England hooker, talked of him delivering “standing passes” against Ireland, serving only to heap pressure on those outside him. They include Brad Barritt and Manu Tuilagi, neither of whom are known for their subtlety, craft or flair. The result? England have invariably run up a cul-de-sac.
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That leads us back to Wayne Smith, the former New Zealand fly half and coach. He did not want the top job but indicated that he would be happy to be involved from September, once his commitments to the Chiefs are over.
That would make sense and bolster a coaching team in which Lancaster is emerging as more of a manager and facilitator who creates the environment and focuses on the “bigger picture”.
He leaves the individual disciplines to the experts. There is nothing wrong with that approach, but it could be interpreted as Lancaster lacking the courage of his convictions. When put on the spot, he deflects attention.
What he is good at is spotting talent and developing it. Ben Morgan, the No 8, has been the star turn of the Six Nations, while Geoff Parling, the lock, and Barritt, as a defensive rock in the centres, can also take a bow.
Lancaster talks of having a long-term plan in place. “We’ve got 37 games between now and RWC,” Lancaster said. “We have got to make sure we use them effectively.
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“Next stop is Barbarians, and a huge tour in South Africa where the Lions didn’t quite get across the line, so it’s going to be a big challenge for us.” Much the same situation confronts Lancaster.