The big election betting story of the week has been the rather sudden flood of money on a hung parliament. You could have gotten 16-1 on such an outcome at the start of the campaign, it’s now down to just 5-1 with Ladbrokes. It had nothing much to do with TV debates but rather the dramatic YouGov poll showing a Tory lead of just 4 per cent. Polling numbers are what really move the markets rather than the day-to-day campaign headlines.
The problem, of course, is that there’s a reasonably large degree of uncertainty in the polls right now. The betting markets are still anticipating Labour’s polling numbers coming down a little from the high 30s and the central projection of Ladbrokes prices would imply a Tory majority of about 80 seats right now. It wasn’t that long ago that we’d been forecasting nearer to a 150-seat majority.
The prospect of a Tory administration returning with no real improvement on their 2015 parliamentary position has turned some punters’ minds to the possibility of Theresa May being replaced as prime minister with some sort of temporary appointment from inside the cabinet. We took a £2,000 bet on Boris Johnson being prime minister on July 1 (100-1) and there’s also been a bit of money for Amber Rudd and Philip Hammond, both now 66-1. Rudd has also taken over as the new favourite to be next Tory leader at 5-1.
The chances of a Labour leadership contest anytime soon have receded a little with Jeremy Corbyn’s position looking more secure, although Yvette Cooper leads the betting as his most likely replacement at 3-1. I think there must now be a pretty good chance of a new Lib Dem leader fairly soon and Jo Swinson has shot to the top of the betting as 3-1 favourite to take over from Tim Farron. Punters seem fairly confident that she’ll win back her seat in East Dunbartonshire and that she might not have much competition, given that the party is only expected to win about 11 seats.
Matthew Shaddick is the head of political betting at Ladbrokes