There have been plenty of ifs and buts attached to Arsenal’s title credentials but this weekend, for the first time, it felt like they really may do it.
No team have been this far ahead at the turn of the year and not gone on to lift the title in the history of the English top flight. Their lead will increase to ten points if they beat Newcastle United at home tomorrow. Soon, the title may be theirs to lose.
Mikel Arteta has tried to play down such talk, perhaps knowing that the pressure got to his side when they were pursuing a top-four place last season. But there are some compelling reasons why this could be Arsenal’s first title since 2003-04.
New winning mentality
With each match Arsenal are showing new qualities, and central to this has been a shift in mentality, much of which can be attributed to the arrivals of Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko from Manchester City.
The resilience that had been missing is there this season, as shown by the way they drove on again after being pegged back by Aston Villa and Liverpool. Jesus, now injured, has been having his say before matches in the dressing room and has also helped his replacement, Eddie Nketiah. “He still gives us a lot of energy with everything he does at the training ground,” Martin Odegaard, the captain, said.
The brilliance of Odegaard
Since the season resumed it is Odegaard who has come to the fore, contributing three assists and a goal in two games. He has been involved in 12 league goals this season — already more than he managed in 36 games last term.
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His drag-back and eye-of-the-needle pass for Gabriel Martinelli in the first half against Brighton & Hove Albion on Saturday, and another sweep of the ball, which released his team-mate for the fourth goal, showed his quality. He is the player issued with instructions by Arteta during breaks in play and who leads by example, rather than by shouting. “I talk when I feel like I should talk and I say what I feel like I should say; I do what the moment requires,” he said.
Partey’s controlling influence
Odegaard’s runs are balanced by the covering from Thomas Partey, who has shown the dynamism and influence that he was signed for in 2020. The midfielder has stood out in the past two matches for his strong defensive performance. He slid in to win the ball from Declan Rice — starting the move that led to Bukayo Saka’s equaliser against West Ham United — minutes after he had tracked back and nudged Michail Antonio, who was clean through and trying to make it 2-0.
On Saturday he robbed Tariq Lamptey, leading to Saka’s opening goal, got in the right position to intercept a cut-back as Brighton chased a second goal and began the move that ended with Arsenal’s fourth of the game. All Partey’s key statistics have improved this season, notably the number of times he has won possession, his touches and passes forward. He also commits few fouls.
New arrivals on way
Arteta has failed to land the sort of central midfielder he has desired in the past two windows and knows his squad is not deep enough. He has made the fewest changes to his starting side of all top-flight managers this season and has mostly opted for late substitutions. He tried to rest players by making changes when Arsenal led 3-0 after 60 minutes against Brighton, and then at 4-1, but those who came on were rusty.
Yet they have pulled clear despite these issues, and Arteta has received assurances that there is money to spend after a recent trip to see the club’s owners in the US. He says he wants the right player, not just squad fillers, and Mykhailo Mudryk’s recent posts on social media have shown his impatience to move to north London. But Shakhtar Donetsk are digging in, demanding £85 million for the winger.
Extra freshness
Jesus’s injury at the World Cup was widely seen as a potentially fatal blow to Arsenal’s hopes. The Brazil forward will be out with a knee injury until next month, but there has been no drop-off without him and they have scored seven goals in two matches, with Nketiah impressing as his replacement at centre forward. “Everyone has to step up; we are missing a great player, but credit to Eddie to come in like that and perform like this,” Odegaard said. “We are always going to create chances and be dangerous. It is about getting the players in the right positions.”
The overall impact of the World Cup may be more favourable for Arsenal compared with their rivals. Players from City, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea appeared for more minutes in Qatar than Arteta’s players.
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No Champions League
Unlike their closest rivals, Arsenal do not face the demands of the Champions League, and should be able to make more changes to their starting line-up in the Europa League, whereas Liverpool and City will feel they must field their best teams.
Points on the board
Arsenal are only the fifth side in English top-flight history to pick up 43 or more points from the first 16 games in a season. In the past two campaigns, City won the title with 86 and 93 points, and, assuming Pep Guardiola’s side finish with a similar tally this time, it would leave Arsenal needing to collect about 47 points from a possible 66. That means they could have the luxury of losing to City, Liverpool, Tottenham and possibly another big side.
Fortress Emirates
Arsenal have a 100 per cent winning record at home, where they have played two fewer games than on their travels. It is the reverse for City, Liverpool and Newcastle United, who have played one more match at home than away. Arsenal also have six clean sheets from nine away matches.
Their next ten matches:
Tomorrow Newcastle (h)
Jan 15 Tottenham (A)
Jan 22 Manchester United (h)
Feb 4 Everton (a)
Feb 11 Brentford (h)
Feb 15 Man City (h)
Feb 18 Aston Villa (a)
Feb 25 Leicester (a)
March 4 Bournemouth (h)
March 11 Fulham (a)
