In the story of every breakthrough team there are days when it looks like the next stretch will be an overreach. That doubt is always rational and easily argued. Before the All-Ireland final of 1995 and the Leinster final of 1996, for example, you couldn’t say that Clare and Wexford were better than Offaly. They weren’t. Evidently, they weren’t. But Offaly didn’t win either game.
As soon as Anthony Daly took the Dublin job, parallels were drawn with the Clare team of the mid-90s. Until this year all of them were glib. What has emerged now is a Dublin team with power, athleticism, aggression, a winner’s mentality and more class than has been generally acknowledged. All of that rhymes with Clare in 1995.
Throughout that summer, Clare were portrayed as a team coping gloriously with their limitations and, in many quarters, that is how Dublin are seen too. Unlike Tipperary, Kilkenny and even Galway they don’t carry a serious goal threat; on average, they shoot too many wides and concede too many frees; they have the capacity to put up formidable tallies but, on balance, scores don’t come easily.
But every breakthrough campaign is an exercise in redrawing personal boundaries. It’s only five months since Dublin faced trips to Tullamore and Wexford Park with concerns from last year about their away form. They finished the League unbeaten on the road. Facing into the League final they knew that none of the performances they had produced up to that point would be good enough to win so, in the stressful environment of their first national final, they produced a career best.
To win today they will need to improve again. Their performance against Galway was impressive in many ways but that standard won’t be good enough against Kilkenny. For a start, an anaemic Galway attack could easily have scored four goals; against Kilkenny, those chances would become converted into a match-winning total.
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The other issue is putting the ball at risk unnecessarily in the middle third of the field. Dublin’s play has been characterised by a heads-up use of the ball which is admirable until it leads to self-harm. Kilkenny’s pressing of the man in possession will be on a different level to Galway’s and yet Dublin coughed up too many turnovers in the semi final.
Most of the Dublin players are able to take a hit and most of them are comfortable on the ball but against Kilkenny it is fatal to invite contact: today, the imperative is to deliver quicker ball to the full forward line. After the performance of the Kilkenny full back line against Wexford you would expect Dublin to get a return from their inside forwards but it’s not always as simple as that. Most disconcerting of all in Wexford Park was the sight of Jackie Tyrell being cleaned out by Rory Jacob.
Tyrell, though, has been here before: in the 2006 All-Ireland semi-final and again in the 2010 semi-final a stream of scores came from his corner and, on both occasions, his response was a storming display in the final.
The case of Noel Hickey is less straightforward. Brian Cody has clearly come to the conclusion that he can no longer be trusted at full back, which makes it hard to see how his form can be restored by a move to the corner. Yet he survived in the Leinster final last year because, bafflingly, Damien Hayes didn’t run at him. Peader Carton surely won’t make that omission and, if he does, Daire Plunkett must be given a chance. Either way, Hickey will be targeted.
The problem for Dublin is that they won’t be able to dominate Kilkenny in the air to the extent that they obliterated Galway.
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Ryan O’Dwyer was quiet in Tullamore before his mindless red card but he is a big loss under the dropping ball today, especially with Tommy Walsh returning at wing-back. Brian Hogan has proven credentials in the air and in Wexford Park Paul Murphy earned his stripes against Stephen Banville, whose catching hand is amongst the best in the game.
At the other end, Michael Rice will probably start at wing-forward again. He was terrific against Wexford, not least as a puck-out target. Even though he scored four points, his selfless demeanour and unassuming gait bring back fond memories of Liam McCarthy, provider-in-chief for DJ Carey and Eamon Morrissey on the Kilkenny team of the early 1990s. Just like McCarthy, Rice’s game is founded on industry and smart use of the ball.
All around him are finishers. Richie Power and Richie Hogan looked sharp against Wexford, and Dublin will struggle to hold both of them. Henry Shefflin could rack up 10 points from play and frees today without anybody taking any notice.
None of the breakthrough teams of the mid-1990s had to deal with the firepower that Kilkenny have. After an almighty struggle that could swing it in their favour.