IT’S been a long summer waiting for a match like this. Finally, we get two big-hitters near the peak of their powers, both carrying serious ambitions all year to win an All-Ireland title clashing in a game at a point in their lifespan that could define a lot about their present and their futures.
It’s been a long way back to an All-Ireland semi-final for Mayo from the devastation last year of losing to Kerry, but that resilience and desire makes them a serious threat. Dublin aren’t responsible for the opposition put in front of them, but Mayo are the first Division One team they’ve met since April. How the Dubs react adds another layer of intrigue.
They’re immaculately matched in almost every way. Both teams should be fresh from a relatively sedate run-in to this match. Dublin and Mayo’s recent history is split right down the middle and both teams contain about three key men who could flip out at any given moment. If black, yellow and red cards do start flying, the loss of any key player in a game like this could be decisive.
Given the quality of both teams, the game is bound to ebb and flow. Whoever surfs those waves best when they’re on top is in an extremely strong position. For Dublin, gaining a good start is beyond crucial. If Mayo impose themselves, that lack of high-octane opposition over the last four months could start to play on the Dublin players’ minds and worry the crowd. Last year’s panic against Donegal in the All-Ireland semi-final set in once Dublin went behind having played so much football early on. Dublin must hit Mayo hard and early, and make every blow count.
Mustering that power will require significant improvement from a few players. Paul Flynn hasn’t been himself this year. The Dublin attack hasn’t knitted together as fluently as other years. Michael Dara Macauley’s absence suggests he’s a victim of Dublin’s attempt to play slightly more cautiously and the team overall hasn’t been moving as menacingly as the last two seasons. They’re also reliant on a familiar core group of players: Cluxton’s kickouts; Bernard Brogan to keep the scoreboard ticking; Diarmuid Connolly as playmaker; their half-back line to hold its shape while providing an attacking base when Dublin go forward.
Advertisement
That area is where this game could tilt either way. Mayo strung Barry Moran, Seamus O’Shea and Tom Parsons across the middle against Donegal to terrific effect. If Dublin’s can’t match them, their half-back line is on the back foot. Get them on the back foot, and the avenues for Mayo to Aidan O’Shea in attack will open up.
It took Mayo the game against Galway to realise the importance of quick ball to O’Shea. Once they did that against Sligo, he wrecked them. Same applies today. Rory O’Carroll won’t mind the aerial stuff against O’Shea but might struggle if he starts getting ball down the channels. Anything 50-50 on the ground, O’Shea tends to win. And when he gets ball in his hand, he’s so close to goal it’s almost certain he’ll create a chance.
Dublin will probably drop a sweeper in front of him, which won’t be hard given that Mayo look likely to leave just Cillian O’Connor alongside O’Shea, if anyone at all. The necessity to get quick ball to O’Shea has also got Mayo using the footpass more and replaced their exhausting running game, allowing them sit their defence deeper to cut out the goals that have sunk them in the past.
Although O’Shea is capable of hammering in goals regardless of what Dublin do, Mayo will almost certainly need a big game from Cillian O’Connor too. The frees he missed in the last game against Donegal worried me, and he hasn’t been great so far this year. This needs to be his day.
Looking for a winner from such a tight game means every detail counts. There’s pressure on Dublin as always, but the expectation is much less feverish than this time last year. Jim Gavin holds a slight advantage on the line over Pat Holmes and Noel Connelly having made the clutch calls in this kind of cauldron before. Dublin also have one trump card. Keeping Kevin McManamon on the bench also gives Dublin the one single gamebreaker on either bench. That slight edge could tilt the game their way.