Only 44 electric cars were bought in Ireland in 2011 and the government is unlikely to reach its target of 10% of the national fleet being electric by 2020, according to the Economic and Social Research Institute.
A working paper from the think tank estimates that the subsidies offered to buyers of electric cars would have to be raised to “incredible levels” in order to reach the target.
As well as being exempt from Vehicle Registration Tax, a €5,000 government grant is provided towards the cost of electric cars. The institute reckons the grant would have to be increased to €50,000 to achieve the government’s goal.
The researchers estimated that electric vehicles would account for just 1% of cars sold this year, when the subsidies were taken into account. If the government grant were removed, the market share would fall to 0.8%. If the VRT exemption was also excluded, it would half to 0.4%.
It is estimated that just over 200 of the 2m cars on Irish roads are electric.
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Richard Tol, a researcher on the paper, said that the electric cars on the market did not fulfil people’s needs. “They’re quite expensive,” he said. “They are good for city driving, but chances are you won’t make Dublin to Cork in an electric vehicle. Even though you may not go very often, you still would want to buy a car that can do that.”
Tol believes that while Chinese manufacturers are investing heavily in improving electric technology, European and American companies appear to be backing away. “They seem to realise the subsidies won’t be as generous in the future as they are now because of the austerity, and the technological progress isn’t as fast as they had hoped, particularly in the battery technology,” he said.
“[Electric cars] are not terribly expensive, but you should compare them to small, light cars. They would be €10,000 more expensive.”
The institute’s paper says the “environmental premium” associated with buying an electric car would have to be increased to “incredible levels” to meet the government’s target. Vehicles with very high and very low carbon dioxide emissions are unpopular with consumers. Rather than this being evidence of an environmental outlook, the researchers concluded that motorists simply preferred mid-sized cars.
The study looked at the factors that had a negative impact on car sales, such as price and fuel cost, and the positive ones, such as acceleration and range, in order to estimate the future demand for electric cars.
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The data was gathered from sources such as the Society of the Irish Motoring Industry and car manufacturers. It was funded by the Environmental Protection Agency as part of a larger project.
According to the paper, just five electric cars were bought in Ireland in 2008, their first year on the market. A total of 44 were purchased last year.
A spokesman for the ESB, which is charged with educating people about electric vehicles, said that it was difficult to estimate what the uptake would be by 2020, but the organisation was convinced electric cars would become mass market. “Already electric cars are becoming mainstream,” he said.
“Versions of standard cars that we are familiar with are beginning to emerge, such as the Renault Fluence. Volkswagen is introducing an electric version of the popular Golf.
“The report refers to the importance of word of mouth and advertising campaigns as ways to increase the market. ESB ecars is promoting awareness through online and social-media channels, holding test-drive days, and we have just launched the Green Electric Drive to invite the public to test an electric car for up to a year.”
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Renault Ireland launched its first electrical vehicle, a version of the Kangoo, in November 2011, and the Fluence, a saloon style electrical car, in March. Julien Lelorrain, the company’s marketing director, said the Fluence was being offered for extended test drives and was generating interest.
“What we know is that the [government’s 2020] target, from when it was announced, is serious and it’s way too early to say that it is not achievable.
“The cars are only arriving in Ireland at the moment and are only being actively promoted and test driven,” he said.