Recent reporting from Afghanistan has been bleak. The Taliban controls half the country’s rural districts and some of the key ports on the borders. There is intense fighting in Lashkar Gah, the provincial capital of Helmand, in Kandahar and in Herat. Thousands of people have been displaced and the potential for a humanitarian disaster is greater than at any time in the past 20 years. It is too soon, however, to write off the country.
There are increasing signs that the population is rallying in defiance.
Crowds in Kabul this week shouted “Allahu Akbar” from their rooftops in support of the Afghan Security Forces. This was reminiscent of people coming out during lockdown in support of the NHS. The cause may be different but this is what happens when people feel the need to act in unison in support of a common goal.
Since 2001 the Afghan people have had access to basic healthcare, clean water and electricity. They have had a free and open media. Women’s rights are protected in a thriving civil society.
With more than half the population younger than 20, most of them have never known the medieval life that existed under Taliban rule. They are not going to give up this progress lightly. It is now vital that the government unites the population against the Taliban. The many political factions in Kabul and across the complex ethnic and tribal groupings must come together for the common good.
Advertisement
Political unity is the centre of gravity in their fight against the Taliban.
They must continue to get behind their security forces who are executing a sensible and realistic military strategy of consolidation.
It has never been possible to defend all of Afghanistan, particularly the rural areas. The key is to hold the urban areas, the provincial capitals and their environs, particularly Herat and the key Pashtun cities in the south, especially Kandahar.
The Taliban originated from Kandahar in the 1990s. If it can be denied to them then this will be a major blow.
The government’s military strategy is to achieve a stalemate. The Taliban must be forced to realise that they cannot conquer all of the country. This battle will take time and it will be an intense struggle but it is the only way of forcing the Taliban to return to the table. The insurgents’ political leadership knows the war will only end in a conversation.
Advertisement
They also know that they cannot share power if they have attained it illegitimately. The majority of the Afghan population, not least the 60 per cent who are not Pashtun will never support them. There are increasing indications that moderate Afghans are determined to fight and their armed forces are holding their own.
The international community has a vital role to play in demonstrating our confidence in the Afghan people. We must help them stay firm. We must call out the Taliban’s leadership and force them to come to the table. We must not give them false legitimacy.
There is a huge disparity between the public behaviour and moderate pronouncements of Mullah Baradar and the political commission and what is playing out on the ground. Grisly images of war crimes being committed against Afghan special forces, government buildings being wilfully destroyed, civilians being brutalised and women being forced into marriages undermine any claim the Taliban might have to political, moral or ethical legitimacy.
Now that foreign forces are not fighting on the ground alongside Afghan forces the Taliban can no longer claim that their military campaign is jihad. The Afghan government’s credibility will be reinforced if it is seen by the Taliban to be standing on its own two feet. The Afghan and Pakistani Ulemas (the councils of religious scholars) in the company of the Saudi Grand Sheikh recently declared the war in the region to be illegitimate under Islamic law. Much needs to be made of this and the Taliban’s own ulema, or body of scholars, must be challenged.
It is not in the interests of Afghanistan’s neighbours to see this war persisting. Many of them are already hosting millions of refugees and millions more will join them unless stability can be achieved. It is inevitable that without it there will be more terrorism as extremists will exploit a vacuum. Working together this can be avoided.
Advertisement
Much now depends on who wins the battle of the narratives. There are increasing signs that moderate Afghans in support of the government and its security forces are beginning to show the sort of defiance that’s needed to win this battle. So don’t write them off just yet.
General Sir Nick Carter is Chief of the Defence Staff
