China has expressed willingness to give Russia military and economic support as it wages war on Ukraine, United States officials said yesterday.
The message, which raises the prospect of a proxy war between Nato and China, was delivered to US allies as President Biden’s national security adviser and Beijing’s top diplomat met in Rome.
Jake Sullivan warned his counterpart Yang Jiechi of the penalties China could face for supplying Russia with munitions, or for helping it to evade western sanctions. Defence experts have said Russia might seek Chinese attack drones to help it gain air superiority in Ukraine.
“At the tactical level it is very bad for Ukraine,” said Robert Clark, a defence fellow at Civitas, a think tank. “It’s already a largely contested airspace, and an influx of Chinese-made attack drones, which are good, would inevitably help tip that air balance more in terms of helping Russia gain superiority in key areas.”
But he added: “China will be wary of being seen to be supplying Russia directly with Chinese arms for fear of sanctions which would likely come.”
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A senior Whitehall source said there was not yet any indication that China would supply its drones. “They would need training if they did, which would take time,” the source said. “Whatever they are, our HVM [high velocity missile] would easily shoot them down”, they added referring to Starstreak, the fastest short-range surface-to-air system in the world, which the UK is preparing to send to Ukraine.
US intelligence reports on China’s willingness to help Russia were passed to allies in person and in diplomatic cables yesterday. A US official said that China was expected to deny the claims. The intelligence sharing was disclosed as part of an American strategy of being more open to counter Russian disinformation, the official said.
A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman denied that Russia had requested military or economic support, calling it American “disinformation”.
At the meeting in Rome, Yang said Beijing “firmly opposes any spread of false information” and “words and deeds that distorts and smears China’s stance”.
Chinese state media outlets also attacked America for spreading “disinformation”. “The US had played some dishonourable tricks,” read an editorial in the Global Times, a party-run newspaper, citing reports that Moscow was seeking military assistance from Beijing.
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“It’s an old trick of US diplomacy to fabricate rumours and make threats to gain a favourable position during negotiations,” the editorial read. “But China won’t fall for it.”
Hu Xijin, the newspaper’s former editor-in-chief, argued that China had no “obligation” whatsoever to promise not to import weapons to Russia. “This is a matter within China’s sovereignty. The US has no right to interfere.”
Before the talks in Rome, Sullivan said the Biden administration was “watching closely” to see how far China would support Russia. He said the US would “not allow” that aid “to go forward”, appearing to acknowledge that the US would be prepared to sanction China. “I’m not going to sit here publicly and brandish threats,” he told CNN on Sunday. “But what I will tell you is we are communicating directly and privately to Beijing that there absolutely will be consequences.”
Asked about claims that China had known of Putin’s plan to invade the Ukraine, and might even have arranged for it to happen after the Winter Olympics in Beijing concluded, Sullivan said: “We believe that China was aware before the invasion took place that Putin was planning something.” However, he added that it “may not have understood the full extent of it because it’s very possible that Putin lied to them the same way that he lied to Europeans and others”.
Chinese officials have refrained from referring to Russia’s invasion, preferring to stress the importance of “sovereignty and territorial integrity” and calling on “all parties” to exercise restraint. Last week China’s foreign ministry spokesman, Zhao Lijian, spoke in support of a claim made by the Russian foreign ministry that the US was funding chemical and biological weapons laboratories in Ukraine. Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US ambassador to the UN, said the laboratories were healthcare facilities for detecting Covid-19, and accused China of spreading Russian misinformation.
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Russia has denied seeking Chinese aid for its invasion. “Russia has its own potential to continue the operation, which, as we have said, is unfolding in accordance with the plan,” Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, said. Franz-Stefan Gady, a research fellow with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that any agreement by China to supply drones to Russia could take months to have an effect on the battlefield.
After Sullivan’s meeting with Yang, the White House said the talks had included “substantial discussion of Russia’s war against Ukraine”.
Ukrainian representatives held a fourth round of talks with Russian officials yesterday. Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to President Zelensky, said the discussions, via video-conference, would be about “peace, ceasefire, immediate withdrawal of troops [and] security guarantees”.
Later he said the talks had concluded for the day but would resume this morning.
Russia has started targeting Ukrainian cities with white phosphorus shells, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence. The deployment of the burning bombs — controversial for their indiscriminate use against civilians in other conflicts — is said to be the latest example of Russia escalating its attacks on key cities.
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What is white phosphorus?
It is a substance used by forces around the world in smoke, illumination and incendiary munitions, and is typically the burning element in tracer ammunition. It burns brightly when exposed to air and produces smoke, meaning it can be used to mark targets at night by lighting up an area on the battlefield or to create smokescreens during the day which provide cover from enemy fire. It can also be used as an incendiary weapon to rain fire down on to targets, burning buildings and leaving civilians with horrific injuries.
What rules govern it?
The use of weapons containing white phosphorus is tightly restricted but not banned under international law. Like all weapons, it is regulated by the basic rules of international humanitarian law, which requires combatants to discriminate between military objectives and civilian elements. Attacks that cause “disproportionate” damage to civilians are prohibited.
Has Russia used it in Ukraine?
Markiyan Lubkivsky, from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, said that attacks on Lutsk, in western Ukraine, had included phosphorus bombs.
A senior police officer claimed that Russian forces had used phosphorus in the eastern region of Luhansk. Oleksi Biloshytsky, head of police in Popasna, 60 miles west of Lugansk city, posted on Facebook post on Saturday: “It’s what the Nazis called a ‘flaming onion’ and that’s what the Russcists [amalgamation of “Russians” and “fascists”] are dropping on our towns. Indescribable suffering and fires.”
What other weapons has Russia used?
Russia has also been criticised for firing cluster bombs and thermobaric missiles indiscriminately at Ukrainian targets. Cluster bomb rockets and artilleryhttps://www.thetimes.com/article/russia-turns-to-artillery-after-ground-advance-stalls-k0nf58m9g shells open while airborne, releasing “bomblets” that are dispersed over a large area, hitting many targets simultaneously. Beyond the initial impact, many fail to explode, posing a long-term threat of death and injury.
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Thermobaric “vacuum bombs” are devastating weapons that suck in oxygen and can vaporise bodies.
