Brexit presents one of the most important challenges facing Ireland, possibly since the inception of the state.
On Tuesday British and EU officials began negotiations on crucial issues for this country, including the future of the common travel area between Britain and Ireland and the implications of Brexit for the Good Friday agreement. As The Times reported yesterday, the talks got off to a positive start, but this is the first step in what will be an extremely complex process.
Brexit talks must be concluded by March 29, 2019. It is not remotely conceivable that a future trade deal between the EU and the UK will be negotiated in this timeframe. The best that can be hoped for is that there is sufficient progress in three key areas: the UK’s divorce bill; the rights of EU citizens living in Britain; and Ireland, which will then enable both sides to start scoping a future trade agreement some time next year.
A transition period would be needed to complete negotiations on a new deal. If there is no deal, then Britain would crash out of the single market and the customs union, and trade between the UK and the EU would revert to World Trade Organisation rules. The Economic and Social Research Institute estimates that in such a scenario, there would be 40,000 job losses in the Republic and it would add €20 billion to the national debt.
It is right that the government does not have a direct role in the Brexit negotiations. The EU must negotiate as a bloc, otherwise there is a danger that each country would pursue their national self-interest. If that were to happen, then the possibility of ever reaching a workable agreement would be remote. Ireland must, however, have a coherent policy position on the future of the border to ensure that the early stages of the Brexit talks go as smoothly as possible. This would then increase the possibility of reaching an overall deal.
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Over the past few days there has been mixed signals coming from government. Speaking at a meeting of EU foreign affairs ministers in Brussels on Monday, Simon Coveney said that he would not accept the return of a hard border. “What we do not want is to pretend here that we can solve the problems of the border on the island of Ireland through technical solutions like cameras and pre-registration and so on. That is not going to work,” he said.
However, if Britain leaves the customs union, the Irish border also becomes the frontier between the EU and the UK. In that case, some sort of a surveillance border will be needed. Mr Coveney’s position is completely at odds with Arlene Foster, leader of the Democratic Unionist Party and former first minister of Northern Ireland. She has said repeatedly that technical solutions such as cameras and pre-registration would be most effective in retaining a frictionless border in the future.
The Times has previously reported that the European Commission had agreed that London, Dublin and Belfast could work on solutions for the Irish border. If these were compatible with EU law, then they would be drafted into the final Brexit settlement. It is now worrying that there seems to be a diverging view on the future of the border between Dublin and Belfast in what is a critical stage of the process.
It emerged yesterday that Guy Verhofstadt, Belgium’s former prime minister, will appear before the Oireachtas EU affairs committee in September. Mr Verhofstadt is the lead Brexit negotiator for the European parliament. The government has done a very good job of ensuring that issues affecting this country are a priority in Brexit negotiations and it is important that this level of diplomacy is maintained.
More importantly, there must be a much greater level of coherency about what happens to the border and the common travel area after Brexit.