Small, energy-efficient cars are all the buzz at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit, which opens to the public today. But whether they will be enough to pull the American car industry out of the worst crisis in its history remains to be seen.
A bigger question also hangs over the sustainability of American driving habits in the face of climate change and new government mandates for fuel economy in a country where driving is a way of life, and a potent symbol of national identity.
Both General Motors and Ford are forecasting that car and truck sales could rise to 12 million this year, from last year’s 10.4 million (a 28-year low), on the back of growing interest in fuel-efficient, compact and hybrid cars.
Research from Walter McManus, director of the Automotive Analysis Division of the University of Michigan, suggests the big three carmakers — GM, Ford and Chrysler — could boost their gross profits by $3 billion (£1.8 billion) a year and increase sales by the equivalent of two assembly plants by embracing new government standards on fuel economy. But others are sceptical about the sales potential of cars using alternative energy, such as GM’s Chevrolet Volt or Nissan’s Leaf.
Karl Brauer, an analyst at Edmunds.com, notes that most Americans are not yet prepared to pay a premium for an electric or hybrid car, adding that even now hybrids and diesels make up only 3 per cent of US car sales.
Advertisement
David Cole, of the Centre for Automotive Research in Detroit, agrees that American drivers are more interested in price than in fuel efficiency.
“In the summer of 2008, Americans had an insatiable appetite for hybrids and small cars when gas prices hit $4 to $5. But when gas prices fell, they forgot all about fuel economy,” he said.
His view is supported by a survey released this week by NADAguides.com, the largest publisher of vehicle pricing and information, which found that the most researched vehicle on its site last year was the Chevy Camaro, a performance car not known for fuel efficiency. There are also concerns that the limited range of hybrid and electric cars do not fit the habits of the average American driver, who covers 29 miles by car every day.
Cotton Seiler, associate professor of American studies at Dickinson College in Carlisle Pennsylvania and author of Republic of Drivers, notes that Americans need cars because of the layouts of their cities, with huge suburban developments stretching for miles, and limited public transport.
“Some 76 per cent of Americans drive alone to work, with journey times lasting 24 to 27 minutes,” he said.
Advertisement
Oliver Kuttner, chief executive of Edison2, an engineering company, said switching to electric cars would not sustain the car industry in the long term. He said: “If all Americans switched to electric cars and carried on driving as they do now, you would need 500 nuclear power stations to meet their energy needs.”
The long-term solution to sustainability in the US car industry, he believes, lies in changing driving habits and in building a different size and shape of car, so aerodynamic that energy use is cut to a fraction of current levels. He is working on a prototype of a car that will do 100 miles per gallon. “It’s the only way forward,” he says. “We have to rethink everything.”