NOBODY likes Mondays, but for nine Scotland players tomorrow will be especially glum. It’s nothing to do with a return to work; the opposite, in fact. They’ll find out their labour is no longer required. That they won’t be going to the World Cup.
One of the group, Chris Cusiter, made Vern Cotter’s decision for him, but for the other eight, the news will hurtmore than anything the French marines dreamt up at Font Romeu.
In truth, Cotter will have had a fair idea for some time as to which 31 players would be coming with him to the tournament. Although he experimented over the warm-up matches, the head coach has been seeking answers to a limited number of questions.
The first concerns the split between forwards and backs, with 17/14 or 18/13 the most likely configurations. Scotland took 16 forwards in 2003 and 17 in 2007 and 2011, those tournaments having a squad size of 30.
The extra place available now may go behind the scrum, increasing the probability of a spot for Richie Vernon, whose transformation from back-row caterpillar to midfield butterfly is not so complete that he couldn’t revert should circumstance demand. With Alex Dunbar set to miss out, Vernon’s odds have shortened.
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He’s not alone in being versatile: all those likely to be selected as loose forwards can play more than one position. If Scotland go with six, Ryan Wilson’s pace could get him the nod, but John Barclay has greater Test experience. Both impressed yesterday, but Cotter may yet settle for five loosies plus Rob Harley. Either way, Josh Strauss, Blair Cowan and David Denton should all go, while Cotter’s faith in John Hardie stands him in good stead, quite aside from the case made by his display last week.
At lock, the Gray brothers will be accompanied by Grant Gilchrist, back in the team yesterday after seeing more of the bathroom than the pitch in Turin. Jonny Gray’s rise has been beneficial for Richie, who has since stepped up to his full 6ft 9in, but less good news for Jim Hamilton, whose game isn’t quite as nuanced.
In the front row, much depends on Ryan Grant’s ankle, tweaked against Ireland a fortnight ago. The thinking has been that Cotter would go with four props, but if there’s any doubt about Grant, Gordon Reid may travel as a fifth.
The question at scrum-half is not about personnel, rather order of preference. Laidlaw grew into the game yesterday but his quiet RBS Six Nations coincided with the rise of Sam Hidalgo-Clyne, while the role Henry Pyrgos played in Glasgow’s Pro12 title run-in and the first two warm-up Tests has given further food for thought.
Finn Russell is a definite at stand-off, and Duncan Weir should be included too, although if Cotter finds himself squeezed elsewhere, he’ll note that Peter Horne, Ruaridh Jackson and Greig Tonks can all flit between 10 and other stations.
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Horne has recovered from a traumatic February afternoon against the Italians, and another Scotstoun centre, Mark Bennett, won’t have too much to worry about either. Dunbar, meanwhile, will be coming to terms with the likelihood of missing out through no fault of his own.
The player’s desperation to make the tournament, and Scotland’s equally ardent desire for him to be there, are wholly understandable, but both parties recognise it would be unwise to take any significant risks with a player who could be a cornerstone for the next seven or eight years.
With medical opinion being that Dunbar would only be ready to take the field midway through the pool phase, having not played any rugby since February, Cotter will need to look elsewhere.
Scotland do have other talented performers in the backline, from the measured flair of Russell at stand-off through to a back three where Tommy Seymour has grown immeasurably and Stuart Hogg recovered his mojo.
Sean Lamont hasn’t been called flashy since those Stade Francais calendar days, but yesterday stepped up once again. The other Sean, Maitland, hasn’t played since January, and may be competing with Tim Visser for one place.