Crime has risen by 14 per cent, including sharp increases in knife and gun offences, as the number of police officers slumps to the lowest level in more than a quarter of a century.
Figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) today show an accelerating increase in crimes recorded by police in England and Wales, which will heap pressure on Amber Rudd, the home secretary.
While separate ONS figures from the Crime Survey of England and Wales, which is based on interviews with adults about their experience of crime, suggest offending has fallen, it is the rise in recorded crime that will raise concern in Whitehall.
The recorded crime figures show offending rising in many areas, including a 20 per cent increase in violence and even bigger jumps in “high harm” crimes. The number of knife crimes rose by 21 per cent to 37,000 in the year to September and there was a 29 per cent increase in robberies to 68,000. Almost all 44 police forces in England and Wales recorded a rise in knife offences but the biggest increase was in London with an increase of 23 per cent.
There was a 20 per cent rise in gun crime to 6,600 with half the increase driven by offences in the capital.
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“The occurrence of these offences tends to be disproportionately concentrated in London and other metropolitan areas. While it is possible that improved recording and more proactive policing has contributed to this rise, it is our judgment that there have also been genuine increases,” the ONS said.
Burglary and vehicle crimes also rose, indicating that the long-term fall in the crimes may be coming to an end. Burglary rose by 8 per cent to 433,000 offences, including a 32 per cent surge in domestic burglaries to 261,000. Thefts of motor vehicles rose by 21 per cent to 106,000 and thefts from a vehicle increased by 15 per cent to 276,000.
Statisticans said there was evidence that the rise in both types of offences was also emerging in the crime survey.
Recorded sexual offences rose by 23 per cent to 138,000 including a 29 per cent rise in rapes, driven partially by a greater willingness of victims to come forward and historical sexual abuse allegations.
Forces in England and Wales recorded 5.3 million crimes in the 12 months to September 2017, a 14 per cent increase compared with the previous year.
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Police have been accused of failing to investigate low-level crimes in order to focus their efforts on dealing with increasing threats from terrorism and cybercrime. However, the rise in police-recorded crime compares with a 10 per cent drop to 10.5 million offences measured by the crime survey. Statisticans said that the overall fall in the survey figure had been driven by a 15 per cent decline in fraud and computer misuse offences.
Nick Hurd, the policing minister, said the ONS “is clear that overall traditional crime is continuing to fall, and is now down by almost 40 per cent since 2010”. But he acknowledged that “some of the increase in police-recorded violent offences is genuine”.
Mr Hurd said the government was taking urgent action, citing tough new laws to crack down on acid attacks and knife crime and a strategy to tackle serious violence.
Diane Abbott, the shadow home secretary, said: “These figures are truly shocking and should put an end to government complacency on crime. The Tories are failing in a basic duty to protect the public.”
Figures will send a chill through the Home Office
If alarm bells were not yet ringing over crime, they will be after the latest set of official figures (writes Richard Ford). Theresa May was in many respects a lucky home secretary who presided over falling crime figures alongside a drop in police numbers.
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That luck appears to have run out, leaving her successor Amber Rudd and the Conservatives with a growing law and order problem.
While statisticians continue to highlight that the long term trend of offending as measured by the Crime Survey of England and Wales continues to fall, the police recorded figures tell a different story.
Of course, increases are partially a result of improvements in recording practices. Unfortunately for the government and Ms Rudd, the offences that statisticians believe have genuinely risen are the “high harm” but “low volume” types such as knife crime, robbery and firearms offences. The numbers may be small but they are the crimes that most alarm the public .
However, it is now beginning to look as if the tide is turning on bulk crimes such as recorded burglaries and vehicle offences. Statisticians are beginning to say that the increase in both areas are showing up in the Crime Survey of England and Wales and not just in crimes recorded by police.
If that trend continues it will truly be cause for alarm at the Home Office, because it was the big drop in bulk crimes such as burglary and vehicle theft that helped to drive down overall offending levels from the peaks of the mid-1990s.