Households are preparing to go on a £600 billion spending spree this summer after shops, restaurants, beauty salons and pubs reopen.
Economists are forecasting a 4 per cent increase in consumer spending between April and June and another 4.5 per cent boost in the third quarter, when all the remaining restrictions are due to have been lifted. Analysts at Capital Economics said that consumers would spend a total of £632 billion between April and September.
From Monday in England, the public will be allowed to drink in pub gardens and dine outdoors at restaurants. In the first week of the reopening, the hospitality sector will receive a £314 million boost, according to the Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR). “There is a palpable sense of excitement surrounding hospitality reopening, seemingly even more so than was the case after the previous two national lockdowns,” it said.
“One possible reason for the added enthusiasm is very likely the belief held by many that thanks to the strong vaccine rollout there won’t be another lockdown. All these factors currently work together to lift consumer sentiment to levels well beyond those seen over much of 2020.”
Households have built up £150 billion in additional savings during lockdown, which economists hope will fuel a consumer boom. The Bank of England expects £6 billion of that to be run down over the coming months, but others are more optimistic. The CEBR said that as much as £22.75 billion of these savings would be spent between April and September.
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Ruth Gregory, economist at Capital Economics, said: “Even if households spent just a quarter of their stock of savings [about £35 billion], this would still lift household spending by 2.8 per cent, boost GDP by 1.6 per cent.”
Shops have been preparing for the grand reopening. Caroline van Luthje, the owner of Wild Swans, an independent boutique in Islington, north London, said: “We have been painting pink and blue walls all week to make the shop look fresh. I think dresses will take over from loungewear as soon as the weather changes, so that is our biggest investment until mid-autumn.”
Casual dresses are at present the bestselling category at Whistles, up 183 per cent year on year. At John Lewis, sales of dresses last week were up 209 per cent on the same period in 2020, and up 31 per cent on that period in 2019.
“Since March, people have been buying day dresses and sundresses,” said Fiona Sanderson, owner of Feather & Stitch boutique in Richmond upon Thames, where dress revenue was up 183 per cent last month compared with March 2020. “We have been selling out of some styles in 24 hours. This is unheard of at this time of year.”
Emma Ilori, head of womenswear elevation at Flannels, the retail chain, has bought more bright coloured items this season than previously, as “everyone needs a bit of cheering up”.
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Colour is also on the agenda at Matches Fashion, the designer retailer. Natalie Kingham, the global fashion officer, thinks shoppers “will be embracing glamourous, colourful pieces” but in more relaxed silhouettes.
Since the road map out of lockdown was announced, John Lewis’s most searched for dresses were for bridesmaids and wedding guests — but whether that will convert to sales may depend on restrictions on wedding party sizes.
Manic Monday
Pubs
You will be allowed to go to the pub, as long as it has outdoor seating, but there will be no waiting at the bar: customers must order, eat and drink at their tables (Arthi Nachiappan writes).
Restaurants
You can dine at a restaurant, provided it has outdoor seating, but you will have to stay seated while you order, eat and drink. When you are moving around, you will need to wear a mask.
Shops
You can buy clothes in person and can even try them on, as stores can open fitting rooms. Shops will stay open until 10pm to avoid congestion.
Salons
You can get a haircut or a facial, or fix your nails from Monday, with hairdressers, beauty salons and nail salons set to open. As before the third lockdown, you will have to wear a mask during your treatment unless it cannot be performed while you are wearing one.
Gyms
There is no longer an excuse to avoid a workout as gyms will be open, at reduced capacity and with social distancing in place. You can also have a spa day or go for a swim.
Theatres
Theatres, cinemas and concert venues will remain closed until no earlier than May 17. Outdoor shows will reopen on Monday.
Socialising
You can continue to meet friends in groups of up to six, or two households, provided it is outdoors and you maintain a distance of one metre with masks or two metres without. People can go to friends’ gardens or do an outdoor activity such as going to the zoo.
Domestic travel
The “stay local” instruction will end, meaning you can go on a “staycation” within England. However, hotels and bed and breakfasts will remain closed until May 17 at the earliest.
Foreign travel
Holidays outside the UK are not permitted until May 17 at the earliest. You can only travel abroad if you have a “reasonable excuse”.
Ceremonies
You can attend or organise a funeral with up to 30 attendees. Weddings, outdoor receptions and other commemorative events including wakes will be able to take place with 15 people, up from six.
Work
If you can work from home, you should do so.