Scotland has recorded its lowest rate of coronavirus cases in nearly seven months with case numbers now below the World Health Organisation threshold for releasing lockdown.
Coronavirus labs reported positive cases in just 1.5 per cent of swabs yesterday — the lowest since September 18.
The seven day average is 2 per cent and the number of cases nationally is equivalent to 47 per 100,000 — hitting the final two WHO thresholds for lifting lockdown. Deaths and hospital cases fell below WHO lockdown limits weeks ago.
Five deaths were registered yesterday, although registry offices are catching up from the Easter weekend so these are likely to have occurred across several days. There are 192 people in hospital — the lowest since October 3.
The WHO recommends lifting lockdown when weekly figures fall below levels equivalent to 273 hospital cases in Scotland, 55 deaths, 50 cases per 100,000 and 2 per cent test positivity.
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Three-quarters of Scottish local authorities are below 50 cases per 100,000. Cases have declined to single figures in island authorities, the Scottish Borders, Dumfries and Galloway and Argyll and Bute.
Only Clackmannanshire, Renfrewshire, West Lothian, North Lanarkshire, Glasgow, East Ayrshire, Falkirk and Stirling remain above 50 cases per 100,000.
Linda Bauld, chairwoman of public health at Edinburgh University, said the WHO guidance was drafted in November — before the new more infectious variants wreaked havoc with epidemiological forecasts.
The WHO confirmed it is revising its guidance to balance the risk of new variants with the impact of vaccines but it has yet to release its findings.
Scotland has one of the most advanced vaccine rollouts in the world so there are very few countries it can look to for guidance. A slow and gradual relax from lockdown will monitor any unforeseen virus surges.
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Bauld said: “The WHO thresholds are not based on the transmissibility and slightly increased fatality of [the Kent variant] so they are probably not as statistically valid as the original strain that was better understood.
“In the absence of this guidance, we just need to get the numbers as low as possible because only about 10 per cent of Scottish adults have had both doses of the vaccine.
“I understand there is pressure from some quarters to move faster but it would be unwise to just unlock and hope for the best. You have to do it step by step and modelling from Sage [the UK government science advisers] last week predicted another surge unless we take a slow and steady course out of lockdown.”
Bauld has been corresponding with colleagues in Chile and Israel which have similarly advanced vaccine rollouts but very different outcomes.
Chile has vaccinated about one third of residents but cases surged when they reopened casinos and resumed international flights. However, its reported death rate is similar to Scotland.
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Jason Leitch, Scotland’s national clinical director, this week questioned Chile’s published death figures.
Bauld said: “Chile is using the Chinese Sinovac vaccine which does not seem as effective and it is a complex country, and I don’t think its reporting standards are comparable to ours, so I think it is reasonable to question its death stats.
“In Israel around 61 per cent of people have had at least one dose of vaccine and a significant number have had both numbers.
“Cases are down 75 per cent from the January peak to really small numbers and deaths are way down.
“Israel did not vaccinate by age group like the UK so adults of all ages have been vaccinated and they are given a ‘green pass’ to go to cinemas, restaurants, hotels, face-to-face teaching at university and they have restarted international flights.
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“People who cannot be vaccinated because they are pregnant or have and underlying health condition can also access these services by presenting evidence of recent test or of a previous coronavirus infection.
“Scotland may be a similar position to Israel in a few months but the ‘green pass’ remains hugely controversial so that remains to be seen.”