A “tsunami” of Omicron Covid-19 cases is set to “run riot” through the population within days, Nicola Sturgeon has warned as modelling shows infections could hit 25,000 a day.
The first minister has said she can’t rule out further restrictions in Scotland and announced tighter isolation rules which mean that from today household contacts will be asked to self-isolate for ten days regardless of their vaccination status or a negative PCR test.
She confirmed that entire school classes may be asked to isolate in a development that is likely to cause major disruption to learning and may throw formal exams into doubt for the third year in a row.
However, Sturgeon said she would “bust a gut” to ensure schools stay open.
“I can’t stand here and say that no class will be disrupted and no school will have periods of disruption — what I’m talking about here is what we had before, which is blanket schools are closed,” she said.
Advertisement
The rate at which cases of the new variant double is between two and three days, and it is highly probable that Omicron will become the dominant variant within Scotland “very quickly”.
Daily cases in Scotland have been about 2,800 recently but yesterday soared to more than 5000, which “underlines our fear that a new wave may indeed be starting,” Sturgeon said.
Sturgeon said she would be pressing the UK government again to make Covid financial packages available to devolved nations that can be distributed to businesses that face lost trade.
Sturgeon told a briefing in Edinburgh: “We do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new Omicron variant. To be blunt, because of the much greater and faster transmissibility of this new variant, we may be facing — indeed we may be starting to experience — a potential tsunami of infections.”
Official projections suggest the upper range of worst-case scenario for Omicron falls just short of 25,000 cases a day by December 20, while the most-likely range of the worst-case scenario will see cases hit a little over 15,000. In the best-case scenario, daily cases will peak at just over 1,250.
Advertisement
More than 1,000 confirmed, probable and possible Omicron cases have already been reported in Scotland.
The data shows it is “likely that a proportion of these infections will result in hospitalisation”. But the paper adds: “Even if the resulting illness is relatively mild, the number of cases could potentially cause great disruption to other services, in the economy and businesses, and in wider society, as more people would be absent from work due to illness and asked to isolate if they test positive, or as contacts of someone who has tested positive.
“It also means that the rapid rise in Omicron infections could put significant additional pressure on hospitals and other health and care services, close to the point in the winter when they are already likely to be at peak pressure.”
Sturgeon said the government expected Omicron to overtake the Delta variant in Scotland “as early as the very beginning of next week” and a “massive number” of patients may need hospital care.
She added: “Given the volume of people who could be infected by Omicron because of its greater transmissibility, even if most of those cases are mild, the number of cases of serious illness will put massive strain on the ability of the NHS to cope.”
Advertisement
She also stressed that although evidence suggests Omicron can evade some immunity conferred by vaccines, people should still get jabbed.
Hospitals are also expected to face pressure from growing numbers of staff who have to self-isolate as they come into contact with positive cases.
A large number of staff at the A&E ward of Hairmyres Hospital in South Lanarkshire are already self-isolating after attending a Christmas party linked to an Omicron outbreak.
Sturgeon took part with other devolved nations in a Cobra meeting chaired by the UK government minister Michael Gove yesterday to discuss Covid-19 data and co-ordination on the response to Omicron.