We are only less than a week into the climate change conference in Glasgow but already we have seen a slew of commitments and announcements from leaders. From reducing methane emissions to ending deforestation, the British organisers of Cop26 are keen to show early and tangible progress towards the conference’s goal of containing global warming to 1.5C.
Yet the risk is that when the jamboree leaves town, everyone will go home and simply breathe a sigh of relief while the hosts rest on their laurels or lick their wounds. That would be disastrous.
We need to be clear that a successful conference alone changes nothing. Yes, targets might have been set and money raised — but to ensure those targets are delivered by every country and by every sector of the economy is a vast challenge. In fact, it is the biggest delivery challenge humanity has ever faced.
Britain’s leadership in the year after the Glasgow event could be decisive.
Firstly, a target without a plan is just a wish. Too often, governments’ plans get noisily announced and instantly forgotten. That won’t do. Countries need real, practical planning that sets out what steps they are going to take and when.
Advertisement
Action will vary from country to country. An oil-rich country, a Pacific island state, a modern industrial country and a predominantly agricultural society all face different challenges, but similar countries can learn rapidly from each other.
The British can lead the development of a global net-zero tracker that would enable countries to see how everyone else is doing and learn from their relevant peers. Something like this already exists for the 25 US cities in the Bloomberg Philanthropies network. It could easily be adapted.
Countries that fell behind or didn’t enter data would be shamed by the transparency and could be chased up by UN agencies.
Secondly, it is one thing to ensure that $100 billion a year is raised — Boris Johnson and Alok Sharma deserve credit for the progress made. But it is quite another to ensure that it is spent well.
Would we be happy to allocate a portion of that funding to a country without a credible plan? Or to one with a track record of corruption? Allocating the funds without ensuring the necessary capacity is in place will fail. Worse still, it would fuel climate change denial.
Advertisement
Look at the track record on the big funds for girls’ education or vaccination. Yes, there has been progress but also massive inefficiency and often disappointing outcomes.
If climate change is the biggest challenge humanity has ever faced, we can’t afford failure on this scale. Britain can prompt the UN, World Bank and others to ensure that every country has access to practical assistance on how to achieve its net-zero goal.
Thirdly, we need to decide what to do if individual countries or sectors fall behind significantly. Hand-wringing will not be enough; how can countries be challenged? What forms of intervention should be considered? Britain can point the way.
Tough set of challenges? Definitely. No one ever said it would be easy.
Sir Michael Barber was head of delivery for Tony Blair and is author of Accomplishment: How to Achieve Ambitious and Challenging Things