World leaders have left Glasgow but the conference still has ten days to run.
What happens now?
In some ways the next ten days are more important than the headline-grabbing announcements of the past two days but the process is complex.
At the simplest level, the negotiating teams from the 190 countries represented must try to forge an agreement that builds on the achievements of the Paris climate change conference of 2015.
A common misconception is that this process is about making further commitments to reduce emissions. It isn’t. Most nations have submitted those plans — called nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — and these are unlikely to change.
What the next two weeks are about is trying to reach agreement on three main areas: transparency and verification, creating a mechanism for speeding up carbon reductions over the next 30 years and trying to establish a global carbon market to underpin offsetting. These are critical in making sure that the world remains on track to reduce emissions and, as Boris Johnson puts it, “keeping 1.5 degrees alive”.
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What about transparency and verification?
There is no format under which countries have to submit carbon reduction plans. For example the UK’s NDC was effectively the government’s net-zero plan published last month, with clear milestones to cut emissions by 2030. Other countries’ NDCs were more vague.
Glasgow aims to change that. Countries are due to submit their next NDCs in five years’ time and the UK wants a format covering key areas such as power generation, transport, agriculture and heating.
The difficulty is that it is easier for developed countries to produce such plans than for developing countries so the mechanism will need to have flexibility; the question is how much.
Then there is the question of how to verify that countries are doing what they say they will do.
One idea is that UN teams should be allowed into all countries to assess progress. The Chinese are not keen on this approach. Whether an agreement can be reached will be a measure of whether there has been a successful outcome from the talks.
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What are other key areas in which agreement is needed?
Countries are required to submit updated NDCs to the UN every five years.
The UK wants to increase the frequency to every two or three years — and make enhanced commitments on a rolling basis.
The argument is that technological advances should allow countries to set more ambitious targets to help reduce emissions more quickly.
However, many are uneasy about this and claim they do not have the political and economic bandwidth to produce NDCs every two years.
What is article six?
This is unfinished business from the Paris talks and needs to be resolved.
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Article 6 aims to finalise the rules on how countries can use carbon markets to reach their targets.
It would create a “rule book” by which rich countries could hit their targets by helping developing countries. For example Britain could pay Ghana to build a clean energy plant to replace a coal power station.
If the rules are clear this should unlock additional funds and boost global efforts to reduce emissions.
When will we know what has been achieved?
The government is planning a series of announcements over the next ten days but these will be side shows. Cop is due to end next Friday but it is unlikely we will see a published version of the final agreement until later. That will be the point at which it will be possible to judge how rigorous the system will be to ensure that the political commitments made so far are actually delivered.
