When Douglas Carswell announced his defection to Ukip last week, the Conservative party was also forced to concede that it was not going to meet its promise to reduce net immigration into Britain to under 100,000 per year. Despite Theresa May’s success at reducing immigration from outside the European Union, a growth in migration from the EU’s poorer member states means that Britain’s population is again growing at a similar rate as it did in the Labour years.
That outcome is likely to maintain Ukip’s momentum. It will lend surface credibility to the argument that membership of an unreformed EU makes it impossible for the government to meet its migration targets. ConservativeHome, the influential website, recommends today that Mr Cameron put full control of the nation’s borders at the heart of his so far ill-defined bid to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with Brussels. It suggests that Britain instead adopt a points-based system for deciding which workers are permitted entry into the country.
Immigration brings important gains, economic and social, to Britain. There is no reason that a new relationship with the EU should preclude them or other benefits, such as open trade in goods and services within the single market. The type of euroscepticism advocated by the ConservativeHome manifesto ought to be a guide to Mr Cameron in his approach.
ConservativeHome is an accurate expression of Tory grassroots opinion. Its manifesto is likely to win headlines for its views on Europe and for recommending that Mr Cameron abandon two of his flagship policies (HS2 and Help to Buy). It also urges the Conservative party to restore a one- nation breadth to its mission. When there is money to spare, the “Homes, Jobs, Savings” manifesto recommends that tax cuts be focused on young workers and the low-paid.
The manifesto urges too the creation of garden city corporations to renew the fading vision of a property-owning democracy. It recommends greater local democracy and investment in transport connectivity between northern England’s great cities to help to rebalance the UK’s economy. These are themes that Mr Cameron and George Osborne have advanced in recent times and that have a good deal to be said for them.
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The manifesto overall is worthy of scrutiny, especially for its emphasis on investment in infrastructure. Its recommendation that northern Britain retain the proceeds from the exploitation of shale gas is one that this newspaper has already advanced. Another proposal contained in the manifesto is the suggestion that the UK establish its own sovereign wealth fund so that any revenues from the future exploitation of offshore oil and gas and other natural assets are channelled into long-term development projects, rather than to fulfil short-term budgetary needs.
As the Tory leadership sifts these ideas it will be aware that a lack of policy is not the principal challenge that it or other mainstream parties face. The greater problem facing the whole political class is one of credibility. Large numbers of voters, especially the Tories’ traditional supporters, are wondering aloud about whether this Conservative-led administration is either able or willing to deliver on its rhetoric in such areas as eliminating the budget deficit and renegotiating Britain’s relationship with Europe.
Cynicism has infected the rest of the electorate too. Manifesto promises about reorganising the NHS, tuition fees and airport expansion have struggled to be honoured as they have crashed against the constraints on the public finances and the internal negotiations required by a coalition government. British politics is not short of policy ideas. A sense of the possible is fortunately not debarring new Conservative thinking.