To earn a place in the European Champions Cup knockout stages for the first time, Connacht must win away from home for just the second time this season.
On the basis of that statistic alone, it appears a peak too harsh to scale for Pat Lam’s men, but nothing is ever straightforward with this team.
Tomorrow’s opposition; Toulouse, the three-time European champions, also need victory to progress and, in their most recent game at Stade Ernest-Wallon, they defeated Clermont Auvergne, the Top 14 leaders.
Yet while there is substantial evidence to suggest they’re not the force of old, Connacht were not giving that impression earlier this week.
“I think you might regret saying that at the end of the season,” John Muldoon, the Connacht captain, said.
Advertisement
“They’ve quality players throughout and they mix that with some big, big men. So we’re under no illusions. Are we going over there with confidence? Absolutely. But is there also fear? Absolutely.”
Connacht have confidence, but where does it come from?
There’s the experience of winning in Toulouse back in 2013, and the recent victory over the same opposition in Galway, where Connacht trailed 21-11 at half time, but won 23-21.
But there’s something else Connacht are hoping will get them across the line: fitness.
That was, Connacht believe, the difference between the sides in the home leg last year, and the key to defeating the French tomorrow.
Advertisement
According to European Professional Club Rugby statistics, Lam’s side top the charts for carries, metres made, clean breaks and defenders beaten this season, and are the only team in the competition to average more than 20 minutes of possession per game.
That speaks a lot to the attitude the westerners bring to their game, although there is the caveat that they have twice played, and hammered, Zebre.
“Against French teams of old, Irish teams used to go toe to toe for 60 minutes then maybe fall away in the last 20, but there’s been a big shift in Irish rugby and we back ourselves as a fit team, we play an expansive game you have to be fit to play and we do it week in week out,” Conor McPhillips, the Connacht backs coach, said.
“Toulouse play other traditionally French teams, where they go toe to toe in the scrum and the maul, but we’re slightly different and they’re not used to playing a team like us.”
Wasps, the Aviva Premiership side defeated in Galway last month, were also taken aback by the Connacht style, but the Irish side won’t have it all their own way today.
Advertisement
Observers have noted a shift in Toulouse’s style in recent weeks, with more time spent with ball in hand and and a greater interest in running from their own half rather than kicking.
They have averaged over 24 offloads in the Champions Cup, with no other team above 20, and their scoring stats show a clear focus on getting points on board in the first half and hoping it’s enough to hold out for victory.
That may work against other teams, but if Connacht cut out the mistakes that have hampered the defence of their Guinness PRO12 campaign, and stay within reach, they could pounce late on.
“They may run at us more but we’d back ourselves not to make the mistakes we made previously, we’ll back our game, our fitness and run them ragged,” McPhillips said.
In a season blighted by injury concerns, Lam makes five personnel changes to the team that beat Zebre last weekend, with Jack Carty starting at out half while Peter Robb forms a new centre partnership with Craig Ronaldson.
Advertisement
Quinn Roux, Nepia Fox-Matamua and Jake Heenan add experience and weight to the pack; one that will need to deliver a performance of their lives against the likes of Census Johnston, Joe Tekori and Thierry Dusautoir.
Plenty to fear. Plenty to be confident about.