The elite clubs — the 12 teams in Premiership One and the five or six in Premiership Two with realistic ambitions of promotion and the wherewithal to stay in the top flight — face a dilemma in the wake of Murrayfield’s strategic review into the future of the game. Which way do they go? Is it their role to develop players from childhood until they are 19 or 20 and ready to step up to the pro ranks? Do they act as a reservoir of near-professional talent to plug injury gaps? Should they plough resources into beefing up players for high-octane, big-hit, multi-phase rugby? Or, alternatively, should they be community sports outlets? Fun would outweigh sacrifice; amateur values would return; and the pros of Edinburgh, Glasgow and the Borders would have to develop their own players and carry large squads.
The Welsh National League is modelled on the latter: clubs are closely tied in with the regional organisations, often train together and share facilities and the National League is where the next generation of professionals learn their trade. Ian McGeechan, the director of rugby, favours a Scottish version.
France and England show the alternative. The leading clubs all run academies which they fill with the best teenagers, hoping that enough will emerge to keep the senior side successful. Talent spotting is done between 16 and 18 and it is a rare beast who enters the system later.
There will be calls for a compromise, a halfway house between these two extremes. That would be the coward’s way, a recipe for disaster. Last week’s mealy-mouthed agreement on how many club players can be released to professional ranks — no more than two per club unless otherwise agreed — shows why. No sane businessman will invest more than tuppence in a pro team unless it has full control of its players.
The extremes produce very different results for the Premiership clubs. If they become the semi-professional back-up for the pro teams, there has to be a self-perpetuating elite, fiddled to make sure that every area of the country is represented. The pro teams cannot feed off, and cannot support more than three clubs each. Therefore, there would be no more than nine clubs, probably fewer, in the top flight. Woe betide any club that misses out.
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Alternatively, put the fun back. Let the pro teams worry about producing pro players, cut the amateurs free from professional commitments. Danger lurks in this option, however. The amateur clubs can sell themselves as the breeding grounds for tomorrow’s stars — “come and see John Beattie, Alan MacDonald, Rory Lamont, John Barclay before they become famous”. Axe those ties and you sever the cord that joins the great club names to the next generation of stars.
Every Scottish-raised player has a link with at least one club (Chris Paterson, Gala; Jason White and Stuart Grimes, Watsonians; Chris Cusiter, Boroughmuir). Are those clubs ready for the day when Scotland players bypass them? That’s why it is a devil’s dilemma, and why the clubs have to prepare for an apocalyptic season. The Genesis report suggests an eight-team elite division, with professional coaches, semi-professional players, cash aid for extra facilities such as weights rooms and medical centres all protected by a play-off relegation system that means any club trying to come up will have to beat a set-up designed to protect the rich. A decision on the size of the league will be taken at a special general meeting in October.
This season most clubs are approaching the season with settled squads so that for the first time in years, last season is a good guide to form, but Watsonians should move up from fourth after using their financial muscle to recruit effectively over the summer.
It’s hard to see the top five being different from last year when Glasgow Hawks were chased home by Boroughmuir, Aberdeen, Watsonians and Heriot’s, though the order will be different. Craig Chalmers will make Melrose more competitive but they are desperate for forwards and will do well to stay in the middle band while Gala have a pack to worry anybody. It is wonderful to see Biggar there and great to see Currie giving so many under-21s a chance, but sadly they start as relegation favourites with Hawick, GHA and Ayr also likely to feature in the basement battle.