The confidential report, which has been presented to the Department of Transport, concludes that Irish Rail can be successfully developed over the next 10 years for less than half the €8.6 billion forecast last April in the government’s Strategic Rail Review.
It is understood the little-used lines that management feels should be closed include Ballybrophy to Limerick, Waterford to Rosslare Harbour and Waterford to Limerick Junction. The report argues the cost of safely maintaining these lines is too heavy a burden on the semi-state company at a time when multi-billion euro investment is required to meet increasing demand on viable routes. These include commuter routes and lines between major cities.
Industry sources said it is unlikely that Seamus Brennan, the transport minister, will contemplate closing lines, a move which could spark fierce opposition in the regions affected. Any attempt to do so would be likely to cause serious dissent from within his own party.
The report estimates the cost of meeting future rail demand, increasing peak capacity and improving the quality of service on Irish trains at €2 billion in the five years to 2007 and a further €2 billion in the five years to 2012.
This level of investment would allow Irish Rail to meet demand on its suburban, inter-city and provincial city services. It calls for a doubling of the capacity of the Dart and the building of at least eight new Dublin stations at Adamstown, Fonthill Road, Parkwest, Pelletstown, Porterstown, Leixlip, Baldoyle and Dunleer.
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On intercity services, it says the extra investment would lead to a significant improvement in safety. Specifically carriages which are more than 30 years old could be decommissioned. The money would allow Irish Rail to increase the frequency, speed and reliability of inter-city services. Outside of Dublin the management is aiming to improve the commuter services to Mallow, Cork and Ennis, serving new stations at Blarney, Kilbarry, Tivoli and Ballynoe.
Half of the €4 billion investment which CIE management believes is necessary is earmarked for Dublin, to service increasing commuter demand. In the short term the company is planning to expand the fleet and improve infrastructure to allow for higher capacity trains, while in the longer term the plan is to also increase the frequency of commuter trains.
The report also addresses the issue of how the €4 billion could be sourced.
At present Irish Rail, which last year recorded a €22.5m deficit, is not in a position to fund any of the required investment. However, the report points out that this could change if the level of government subvention was increased or if the company was allowed to charge commercial prices.
Even if both fares and the subvention were to be increased the report points out the company would still require ongoing capital grants from both the European Union and the exchequer. It also explores the possibility of sourcing private funding through public-private partnership.
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The investments are based on projected increase in passenger demand from 35.8m last year to 44m in 2006 and 60m in 2012.