A BREAKAWAY “G8 Plus” group could soon exist after the Kyoto agreement came into force yesterday without the signature of the president of the world’s biggest polluter — the United States.
The group would seek to supersede Kyoto with a global warming strategy based on G8 scientific advances that help emerging industrial nations to develop “clean” technologies.
Tony Blair plans to invite the key developing industrial powers of China, India and Brazil to Britain’s G8 summit this summer in his attempt to convince the United States to rejoin international efforts to tackle global warming.
Downing Street has received positive signals from Washington about the plan.
The US announced yesterday that it would spend $5.8 billion (£3.06 billion) on research into climate change, technology and tax incentives to fight global warming this year.
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One Downing Street insider said: “America has said that it would not sign up to Kyoto because China and India do not have to make any cuts (under the treaty). It is not going to sign up if its compet- itors do not. If we can get China and India sitting alongside America, it will help Bush enormously.”
Mr Blair hopes that China and India, the world’s fastest- growing industrial powers, will be joined on the new group by Brazil, representing South America, and South Africa, representing Africa.
His plans seem to accept that world leaders simply will not agree to a reduction in living standards or economic prospects in order to achieve post-Kyoto climate change targets.
Instead, he will attempt to re-engage the US with the prospect of profits for its science and technology sectors in producing the cleaner cars and power stations that developing nations will need.
Mr Blair also wants to push the idea of global emissions trading to US neoconservatives, despite the embarrassing row with Brussels over Britain’s own carbon dioxide limits, which threatens to undermine his international authority on climate change.
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Critics are likely to think that the plans involve too many concessions to the US, but Downing Street has long given up on persuading President Bush to accept Kyoto and believes that the row on American withdrawal has obscured the search for realistic long-term global solutions.
Kyoto, the United Nations deal agreed in 1997, sets a binding cut in greenhouse gas emissions of at least 5 per cent from 1990 levels by 2012.
Britain is on course to exceed its target of reducing emissions by 12.5 per cent; but even if fully implemented, the UN has projected that Kyoto would cut a projected rise in temperatures by only 0.1C by 2100.
This seems a drop in the ocean against forecasts by a UN climate panel of an overall rise of 1.4 to 5.8C by 2100.
One Downing Street insider said: “Kyoto was the right thing to do in 1997-98 but we have got to find a way of moving things on. The Americans think there are scientific solutions to everything and they are actually quite engaged in the development of renewable energy sources and biofuels.
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“There will be an explosion in car ownership in China over the next ten years and we cannot deny them cars, but we can make sure they are far more environmentally friendly.
“China is also about to embark on a large expansion in coal-fired power stations so the issue is can you develop a cleaner coal technology?” Richard Boucher, a spokesman for the State Department, pledged nearly $5 billion yesterday for research into climate change and technology.
A further $700 million was earmarked for tax incentives for renewable energy and $200 million for foreign aid climate programs.
Mr Boucher said: “While the United States and countries with binding emissions restrictions under the Kyoto Protocol are taking different paths, our destination is the same, and compatible with other efforts.”
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