It is not quite true that China’s diplomacy defends every repressive regime from A to Z. The range does, however, extend from Burma to Zimbabwe, and it includes Iran on the way. China has continually stymied international efforts to prevent the acquisition of nuclear weapons by the Iranian regime. The latest phase of this obstructionism is to object to the imposition of a new round of sanctions against Iran. China thereby isolates itself not only from the United States and the EU3 (the UK, Germany and France) but also from Russia on the most pressing security task of the age.
Diplomats representing each of the countries in this six-power group met in New York on Saturday to discuss Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. China indicated uninterest in the proceedings by sending only a junior member of its UN mission. It then prevented the group from issuing a statement of new sanctions. The meeting promised only talks about possible sanctions.
It is hardly surprising that Iran should have responded to this outcome with derision, as derision is what it merits. President Obama set a deadline of December 31, 2009, for the regime to respond to a generous offer of political and economic incentives. In return, the country would have undertaken to halt uranium enrichment. No such undertaking has been received.
The history of Iran’s nuclear programme is dispiritingly regular. It is a pattern of deceit, followed by stern words from the UN Security Council (UNSC) and the International Atomic Energy Agency, and a superficial retreat by Iran to what these international bodies require. Then the cycle begins again. The process is farcical, but it does at least demonstrate that the mullahs, unlike North Korea, which has withdrawn from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, are susceptible to pressure. China is now undermining even that minimal degree of leverage. If the six-power group cannot agree on sanctions, then the Iranian regime will consider itself exempt from UNSC resolutions because it will be immune to attempts to enforce them.
Iran’s insistence that it has a right to develop nuclear energy is bluster, as no one is disputing it. The problem is that its nuclear programme is plainly not designed purely to generate electricity. Its uranium enrichment facility at Natanz and heavy-water plant at Arak were exposed by foreign media. They are unnecessary for a civil nuclear programme. Iran has since been able to proceed while barely checked, because of divisions within the UNSC.
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China’s role in the six-power group and the UNSC is crucial. Its economic strength matters in the application of sanctions. Its diplomatic importance, as a permanent member of the UNSC and with the power of veto, will determine whether Iran feels constrained in its nuclear ambitions. China, as a rapidly industrialising power and a massive consumer of energy, is a huge market for Iranian exports. It is, in return, supplying Iran with Silkworm missiles. The relationship replicates China’s import of oil from Sudan and export of weapons for the atrocities committed by that regime in Darfur. The difference is merely that in Darfur the genocide has already happened, whereas President Ahmadinejad looks forward to the annihilation of Israel.
There is a terrible precedent for the failures of international diplomacy over Iran. From the end of the first Gulf War, Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq knew that it could exploit divisions in the UNSC. The task of implementing and policing what the UNSC required fell to the US and the UK. The outcome was a war that Saddam provoked and that inflicted immense human suffering. Against the nuclear adventurism of Iran, international diplomacy must work. China is ensuring that it fails even before it starts.