China’s push for “global power” and its efforts to undermine western alliances represent the primary national security threat to the United States, President Biden’s director of national intelligence has warned.
It is the first time Beijing has topped an official list of national security threats to the US, with its attempts to expand its influence and drive a wedge between Washington and its allies ranked as the most severe risk.
“China increasingly is a near-peer competitor, challenging the United States in multiple arenas — especially economically, militarily and technologically — and is pushing to change global norms,” a report from the director said.
It said that Beijing saw this development “as part of an epochal geopolitical shift” and would continue its “efforts to spread China’s influence, undercut that of the United States, drive wedges between Washington and its allies and partners, and foster new international norms that favour the authoritarian Chinese system”.
The report did not say that the rivalry would explode into all-out war but it warned of the need to prepare for conflict in the “grey zone” between war and peace, with increasing intelligence operations, cyberattacks and coercive diplomacy.
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Iran and North Korea, who have both moved closer to China in recent months, were also cited among the top national security threats, although the assessment noted that Iran’s work on a nuclear weapons had not advanced despite its announcement this week that it would start enriching uranium to near weapons-grade purity.
However, the assessment of the situation in Afghanistan made for bleak reading the same day that Biden confirmed his intention to withdraw troops by September 11, the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks that sent Nato troops there.
The report, prepared before news of the announcement emerged, predicted that “the Taliban is likely to make gains on the battlefield and the Afghan government will struggle to hold the Taliban at bay if the coalition withdraws support”.
It continued: “Kabul continues to face setbacks on the battlefield, and the Taliban is confident it can achieve military victory. Afghan forces continue to secure major cities and other government strongholds, but they remain tied down in defensive missions and have struggled to hold recaptured territory or re-establish a presence in areas abandoned in 2020.”
While Russia “will remain the largest and most capable WMD rival to the United States for the foreseeable future” China is also expected to “at least double” its nuclear weapons capacity over the next decade. “Beijing is not interested in arms control agreements that restrict its modernisation plans and will not agree to substantive negotiations that lock in US or Russian nuclear advantages,” the report said.
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It also predicted that China would launch a space station between 2022 and 2024 as part of its attempt to exceed Washington’s capabilities in space. Building on its earlier lunar exploration, “it intends to establish a robotic research station on the Moon and later an intermittently crewed lunar base”.
