China could invade Taiwan by 2025 but it is not equipped to do so now, according to the latest assessment by the self-governed island’s defence ministry.
In a report submitted to the island’s parliament for a budget review, the ministry said that China’s People’s Liberation Army did not yet have enough amphibious ships for a lightning invasion carried out in a single wave of landings, according to media in Taipei.
“[Taiwan’s] military strongly defends ports and airports and they will not be easy to occupy in a short time. Landing operations will face extremely high risks,” the ministry said.
It also said that the Chinese military had limited capacities in logistical support and that the island’s armed forces could disrupt its supply lines by harassing the transport ships and planes on which Beijing would rely to send ammunition, food and medicines to its troops across the more than 100-mile wide Taiwan Strait.
The ministry warned that by 2025 China would have improved its ability to control the waters. The Chinese military is rapidly modernising its navy, adding bigger and more powerful warships to its fleet.
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Tensions are running high in the Taiwan Strait. Beijing has been sending military planes to probe the airspace near the island almost every day, raising fears that it could soon launch an invasion.
Beijing considers Taiwan part of Chinese territory, is committed to “reunification” by 2050 and does not exclude the use of force. Nationalistic voices calling for the Chinese military to “liberate” Taiwan as soon as possible are growing louder.
Chinese diplomats have warned Taiwan and its supporters not to underestimate Beijing’s determination and its ability to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Any military action against Taiwan could precipitate a confrontation with the US. The US has a security agreement with the island to supply it with sufficient hardware and technology to deter any Chinese invasion. President Biden has indicated that the US is committed to defending the island.
In China experts at an annual forum hosted this past weekend by the Global Times, a party-run newspaper, argued that the country would have a better chance to “solve the Taiwan question” in three to five years when it had developed “overwhelming advantages” against the US in the region.
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If the balance of China-US power should shift in Beijing’s favour, Washington may be more restrained, making the resolution of the Taiwan question more “straightforward”, Shen Dingli, a professor from Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies, told the forum, as reported by the paper. Chinese experts at the forum agreed that war was unlikely in the short term.
In Taiwan the ministry said that Beijing could use military exercises to launch a surprise attack. Chinese forces could concentrate in the waters east of Taiwan, from where they could surround the island and cut off reinforcements from Taiwan’s allies before they launch an attack.
President Tsai of Taiwan is overseeing a military modernisation programme to make the island harder to attack. Her government plans an extra NT$240 billion (£6.5 billion) over the next five years in military spending most of it on naval weapons, including missiles and warships.
