France’s conservative opposition yesterday backed the warning from President Hollande’s Socialist government that Brexit would open the gates to migrants from Calais. However, this is seen more as a symptom of exasperation with Britain over the migrant crisis and David Cameron’s EU referendum than as future French policy.
The French establishment is eager to keep Britain in the EU and the politicians’ remarks are partly aimed at encouraging a Remain vote on June 23 — at the risk of achieving the opposite by stirring the instinctive British rejection of French threats.
Bruno Retailleau, Senate leader of Nicolas Sarkozy’s Republicans, said that he supported the view of Emmanuel Macron, the economy minister, that Britain’s border controls at Calais would be moved back across the Channel if Britain broke with the EU. “Our English friends cannot have their cake and eat it,” Mr Retailleau said on Europe 1 radio. “If Great Britain leaves the European Union and no longer acts in solidarity, I don’t see why we would support solidarity with our English friends.”
As much as France resents being saddled with what it sees as a British problem at Calais, Paris would be unlikely to scrap the border arrangements overnight because the alternative could be chaos. French as well as British ferry and tunnel operators, hauliers and bus companies would face paralysis because they would bear the burden of screening passengers and barring stowaways to avoid punitive British fines for transporting illegals.
For all the rivalry between Europe’s two old powers, Mr Hollande’s team, as well as the Republicans who are expected to win power next year, have been telling London that they regard a Brexit as potentially disastrous for all sides. Mr Hollande’s advisers say that they are confident that the pragmatic British will vote to stay. They also acknowledge the danger that overt French support for the Remain side is likely to play into the hands of the leavers.
