Calton, Haymarket, New Town, Old Town, Stockbridge, west end
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Median price at May 2004: £137,000
General increase since September 2003: 19.67%
Projected increase to September 2005: 10%
Market view: Edinburgh Solicitors Property Centre sales data for the three months to June this year revealed that annual property price inflation is running at 13.2%. The ESPC reported sales in excess of £700m — about 6% up on the second quarter of last year. Over this period, the average Edinburgh home was selling for £168,989. This increase was accompanied by a 6% fall in the number of properties sold, yielding the 13.2% rise in the average price.
City-centre properties outperformed Edinburgh as a whole, with the average price rising to £214,861 (17%). The best performers remain the ever-popular two-bedroom flat categories for Marchmont/Bruntsfield and Stockbridge/Comely Bank. During early summer, sales of this category turned in average rises of 20.2% (to £231,885) and 10.8% (to £200,861) respectively.
With the rental/buy-to-let sector fairly stagnant, agents cautiously suggest property price inflation could fall back to single figures. If base rates rise above 5%, price rises might drop to between 5% and 10%.
New 1-bed apartment (Haymarket)
September 2003: £115,000
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September 2004: £130,000
September 2005: £143,000
Second-hand 1-bed apartment (Stockbridge)
September 2003: £142,000
September 2004: £165,000
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September 2006: £181,000
New 2-bed apartment (Stockbridge)
September 2003: £153,000
September 2004: £175,000
September 2005: £192,000
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Small second-hand 2-bed apartment
(New Town/west end)
September 2003: £175,000
September 2004: £211,000
September 2005: £232,000
Large second-hand 3-bed apartment
(west end)
September 2003: £464,000
September 2004: £510,000
September 2005: £560,000
Large second-hand 4-bed apartment (Stockbridge)
September 2003: £610,000
September 2004: £645,000
September 2005: £740,000
6-bed town house (Calton/Stockbridge)
September 2003: £655,000
September 2004: £1.2m
September 2005: £1.25m
Second-hand 2-bed apartment (Heriot Row)
September 2003: £475,000
September 2004: £500,000
September 2005: £525,000
(Source: Menzies Dougal, Anderson Strathern, Stewart Saunders)
EDINBURGH EAST AND LEITH
Joppa, Leith, Newhaven, Portobello
Median price at May 2004: £137,500 (Edinburgh general)
General increase since September 2003: 15%
Projected increase to September 2005: 10%
Market view: This summer’s ESPC figures have been grim viewing for first-time buyers hoping to snare a property in Edinburgh east. The centre quotes one-bedroom flats around Leith Walk and Easter Road as fetching on average £96,219 — an increase of 24.2% over the year.
Our experts’ figures are even higher, and the only conclusion to be drawn from this is that young, single buyers have been priced out of every fashionable area.
Elsewhere in Edinburgh east, agents have witnessed 12 months of steady growth (between 15% and 20%), and although the market is cooling somewhat, another 10% increase across all categories does not seem unrealistic. There are significant further developments in Leith in the pipeline, suggesting developers too have continuing confidence in the area.
New 1-bed apartment (Portobello)
September 2003: £100,000
September 2004: £120,000
September 2005: £130,000
Second-hand 1-bed apartment (Leith)
September 2003: £90,000
September 2004: £110,000
September 2005: £120,000
New 2-bed apartment (Newhaven)
September 2003: £130,000
September 2004: £150,000
September 2005: £165,000
Second-hand 2-bed apartment (Leith)
September 2003: £120,000
September 2004: £140,000
September 2005: £155,000
3-bed ex-council
September 2003: £100,000 (Leith)
September 2004: £120,000
September 2005: £140,000
Second-hand 3-bed semi (Portobello)
September 2003: £130,000
September 2004: £150,000
September 2005: £170,000
Second-hand 4-bed semi
September 2003: £150,000
September 2004: £180,000
September 2005: £200,000
Second-hand 5-bed detached
September 2003: £180,000
September 2004: £220,000
September 2005: £250,000
2-bed cottage
September 2003: £120,000
September 2004: £140,000
September 2005: £160,000
4-bed town house
September 2003: £220,000
(Leith Links)
September 2004: £250,000
September 2005: £280,000
(Source: Warners, ESPC)
EDINBURGH NORTH
Barnton, Crammond, Granton, Muirhouse, Murrayfield, Ratho, Trinity
Median price at May 2004: £137,500 (Edinburgh general)
General increase since September 2003: 10-15%
Projected increase to September 2005: 10%
Market view: Comprising the likes of Trinity, Murrayfield and Cramond, north Edinburgh remains a mecca for upwardly mobile professional families in search of smart, period houses. However, despite the obvious desirability of some of the city’s finest four-bed family homes in this area, Edinburgh north is not immune to the correction in price inflation that is taking place throughout the capital. For example, a typical second-hand four-bed semi in Murrayfield rose by £120,000 (25%) to £600,000 between September 2003 and September this year, while a typical four-bed detached rose by £170,000 (25%) to £850,000 in the same period.
Both styles are expected to grow by just 10% in the next 12 months. At the bottom of the market, new-build apartments in Trinity are performing far less well, with prices predicted to remain unchanged over the next year.
New 1-bed apartment (Trinity)
September 2003: £85,000
September 2004: £120,000
September 2005: £120,000
New 2-bed apartment (Trinity)
September 2003: £130,000
September 2004: £150,000
September 2005: £150,000
Second-hand 2-bed apartment (Silverknowes)
September 2003: £110,000
September 2004: £120,000
September 2005: £130,000
Second-hand 2-bed apartment (Muirhouse)
September 2003: £110,000
September 2004: £130,000
September 2005: £140,000
3-bed ex-council (Granton)
September 2003: £55,000
September 2004: £70,000
September 2005: £77,000
Second-hand 3-bed semi (Corstorphine)
September 2003: £200,000
September 2004: £250,000
September 2005: £275,000
Second-hand 4-bed terrace
(Barnton)
September 2003: £300,000
September 2004: £400,000
September 2005: £425,000
Second-hand 4-bed semi (Murrayfield)
September 2003: £480,000
September 2004: £600,000
September 2005: £660,000
Second-hand 4-bed detached (Murrayfield)
September 2003: £680,000
September 2004: £850,000
September 2005: £935,000
2-bed cottage (Ratho)
September 2003: £135,000
September 2004: £145,000
September 2005: £150,000
(Source: Anderson Strathern, ESPC)
EDINBURGH SOUTH
Blackford, Balerno, Currie, Comiston, Grange, Morningside, Polwarth
Median price at May 2004: £137,500 (Edinburgh general)
General increase since September 2004: 20-30%
Projected increase to September 2005: 10%
Market view: As a region that plays host to the likes of Morningside and the Grange, you’d be right to expect Edinburgh south to perform consistently well in terms of sales.
If you bought a second- hand, five-bed detached house in Morningside for £850,000 in 2003, your asset may have grown by £134,000 by this time next year — a 16% increase in two years. In the Grange, a second-hand four-bed semi will have risen from £651,000 to £832,000 over the same period (a rise of 28%).
In Currie, on the other hand, a second-hand three-bed semi could return very different numbers over the same period. Despite a similar percentage growth to the Morningside five-bed detached in 2003/04, agents predict no capital growth for three-bed properties in Currie over the next 12 months.
If there is a moral for speculators, it is that established hot spots, such as Morningside and the Grange, will always perform well regardless of wider market conditions, while properties in less mature “warm” spots are more susceptible to fluctuating demand. Security comes with the premium price tag.
New 1-bed apartment (Morningside)
September 2003: £95,000
September 2004: £106,000
September 2005: £117,000
Second-hand 1-bed apartment (Polwarth)
September 2003: £85,000
September 2004: £119,000
September 2005: £131,000
New 2-bed apartment (Polwarth)
September 2003: £145,000
September 2004: £172,000
September 2005: £189,000
Second-hand 2-bed apartment (Comiston)
September 2003: £149,000
September 2004: £185,000
September 2005: £204,000
Second-hand 3-bed semi (Comiston)
September 2003: £335,000
September 2004: £442,000
September 2005: £486,000
Second-hand 4-bed semi (The Grange)
September 2003: £651,000
September 2004: £756,000
September 2005: £832,000
Second-hand 5-bed detached (Morningside)
September 2003: £857,000
September 2004: £901,000
September 2005: £991,000
4 bed terraced (Morningside)
September 2003: £401,000
September 2004: £460,000
September 2005: £506,000
3-bed ex-council (Newington)
September 2003: £125,000
September 2004: £140,000
September 2005: £150,000
Second-hand 5-bed detached (Balerno)
September 2003: £400,000
September 2004: £450,000
September 2005: £480,000
Second-hand 4-bed semi (Balerno)
September 2003: £145,000
September 2004: £165,000
September 2005: £165,000
Second-hand 3-bed semi (Currie)
September 2003: £140,000
September 2004: £165,000
September 2005: £165,000
4-bed terraced (Blackford)
September 2003: £295,000
September 2004: £340,000
September 2005: £350,000
(Source Source: Menzies Dougal, Anderson Strathern, Stewart Saunders)
EDINBURGH WEST
Carrick Knowe, Dalry, Gorgie, Saughton
Median price at May 2004: £137,500 (Edinburgh general)
General increase since September 2003: 20-25%
Projected increase to September 2005: 10%
Market view: This year’s figures for Edinburgh west should strike fear into the heart of every would-be first-time buyer in the capital. The second-hand one-bed Gorgie flat at £90,000 — often quoted as Edinburgh’s archetypal first-time buyer purchase — is now beyond the budgets of most single potential purchasers on an average professional salary. If they weren’t before, a couple’s dual-income purchase or collaborative mortgage — where friends or relations club together to buy a house — are now the only way onto the capital property ladder for many first-time buyers.
With the one-bed Gorgie flat set to increase by almost £10,000 over the next year, all but the most insalubrious Edinburgh locations will be off limits to single buyers on budgets.
At the top end of the market, even a 6% increase in the value of a Barnton town house this year will add £25,000 to the current price of £400,000. Prices may be cooling, but that doesn’t mean buyers won’t be forced to shell out hefty sums to secure top Edinburgh properties.
New 1-bed apartment (Gorgie)
September 2003: £96,000
September 2004: £120,000
September 2005: £134,000
Second-hand 1-bed apartment (Gorgie)
September 2003: £72,000
September 2004: £90,000
September 2005: £99,000
New 2-bed apartment (Dalry)
September 2003: £116,000
September 2004: £145,000
September 2005: £130,000
Second-hand 2-bed apartment (Dalry)
September 2003: £112,000
September 2004: £140,000
September 2005: £154,000
3-bed ex-council (Saughton)
September 2003: £80,000
September 2004: £100,000
September 2005: £110,000
4-bed modern town house
(Carrick Knowe)
September 2003: £200,000
September 2004: £250,000
September 2005: £300,000
(Source: Graham and Sibbald, Anderson Strathern, Stewart Saunders)
STREET SIGNS
Examine property sales in a single street and you get a flavour of the rate of house-price increases in Edinburgh.
Take Comiston Drive, close to Morningside, a street lined with solid rows of late Victorian sandstone houses, each similar in design with four or five bedrooms and long gardens. Behind their bay windows are elegant drawing rooms and to the rear there is sufficent space to create generous kitchens and living areas. These are the kind of residences that professional families aspire to own.
In May 2002, a house on the south side of the road sold for £350,000; a month later, a property on the other side of the street changed hands for £370,000. Fourteen months after that, a similar house in the road reached £466,000.
At the beginning of 2004 another north-side property sold for £535,000. According to our experts, houses in the street will sell for about £585,000 by September 2005. Meanwhile, a house only a couple of streets away broke the £600,000 barrier earlier this year.