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Can jaw-jaw in the West really stop Putin rolling into Ukraine?

Liz Truss is talking tough on Russia, writes Tim Shipman, and hopes a Beatles-themed G7 meeting in Liverpool will join her chorus

A militant holds a surface-to-air missile launcher near the settlement of Frunze in Ukraine
A militant holds a surface-to-air missile launcher near the settlement of Frunze in Ukraine
ALEXANDER ERMOCHENKO/REUTERS
Tim Shipman
The Sunday Times

In the new Cold War with Russia the battlefield is dominated by spies, propaganda and cyberattacks. But Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, has found a novel way of galvanising western unity over President Putin’s threat to Ukraine: the Beatles.

The Foreign Office hired a tribute act to the Fab Four called the Cheatles in an effort to woo Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, and stiffen the resolve of Britain’s partners against aggression from Moscow at the G7 summit of foreign ministers in Liverpool this weekend.

Truss and Blinken discovered a shared love of Lennon and McCartney when they dined together at the Cop26 climate summit in Glasgow last month. Truss would like America to take as tough a line as possible to deter Putin from ordering more than 90,000 troops into Ukraine.

Ukrainian soldiers rest in a building near their front-line positions earlier this week
Ukrainian soldiers rest in a building near their front-line positions earlier this week
BRENDAN HOFFMAN/GETTY IMAGES

A leaked copy of the joint statement that the foreign ministers are expected to sign today warns the Kremlin there will be “massive strategic consequences for Russia, including severe sanctions” if there is further military action against Ukraine.

Before the summit Truss said: “What we have to do is deter Russia from taking that course of action. It would be a strategic mistake for Russia to do that.” She added: “The G7 meeting is about a show of unity between like-minded major economies that we are going to absolutely be strong in our stance against aggression with respect to Ukraine.”

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Truss and Blinken have developed an unlikely friendship since she was promoted in September. “They don’t seem very similar,” a diplomatic source said, “but their first meeting at the UN general assembly in New York overran by 40 minutes, to the irritation of some officials.”

The Beatles diplomacy — and performance by the Cheatles — took place last night at the Liverpool Beatles Museum, where the G7 foreign ministers gathered for dinner. Yoshimasa Hayashi, the Japanese foreign minister, is also understood to be a big fan of the Beatles.

President Biden spoke to Putin last week, issuing a blunt warning that western countries are prepared to slap economic sanctions on key regime figures and — more significantly — to kick Russia out of the international banking payment system, which would compromise the country’s ability to trade.

Britain and the US are also pushing for a suspension of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany, warning European Union countries that they risk becoming overly dependent on Moscow’s good wishes.

Truss said: “We absolutely need to reduce dependence on Russian gas and energy. And this should be part of an overall strategy of reducing dependence on malign actors, making sure that the free world is able to have that strategic independence it needs to survive and thrive.”

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Details of Truss’s soft power push came as Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, also urged America to get tough with Russia. In an interview with The Sunday Times Magazine, to run next week, Wallace said he was “saddened” by the speed of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, which he said was a mistake.

US secretary of state Antony Blinken speaks in November, as president Joe Biden looks on
US secretary of state Antony Blinken speaks in November, as president Joe Biden looks on
CAROLYN KASTER/AP

“I think it was strategically wrong because the world is more interconnected than it has ever been,” Wallace said. “America does need to be the world policeman, for us, for our values, for our way of life. I worry what happens if America were to become isolationist in this global world.”

There is scepticism in diplomatic circles that Putin will be deterred by sanctions. But British officials believe a strong show of unity this weekend will at least give him pause for thought.

“Putin seems to be testing the West all the time. He pushes and pushes and sees what he can get away with,” one said. “After Afghanistan it became clear that he thinks the White House lacks the stomach for a fight. If he knows the G7 and other western countries will act as one, he will have less scope for divide and rule.”

The recent integrated strategic defence and security review set out a model in which Britain would forge a range of new partnerships with like-minded countries on specific issues.

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Truss built on that at a speech last week to the foreign affairs think tank Chatham House, in which she said: “Britain is determined to work with our friends to form a network of liberty that spans the world.”

Last month she visited British troops in Estonia and was pictured in a tank. The image was widely interpreted as the foreign secretary positioning herself as an heir to Margaret Thatcher in a future leadership contest. But aides said it was a way of reminding Putin that the West has a military commitment in eastern Europe. “She [Truss] is of the view that words matter and that Russia is more likely to respond to and understand tougher language,” one said.

President Biden spoke to Vladimir Putin last week
President Biden spoke to Vladimir Putin last week
ADAM SCHULTZ/WHITE HOUSE/ALAMY

The foreign secretary’s approach is to work with democracies and seek to use western business and finance to woo non-aligned countries away from dependence on Chinese finance or Russian influence.

The strategic review made clear that intelligence chiefs and diplomats regard China as the biggest long-term strategic economic rival while Russia is the most malign short-term threat to the UK. Russia is unlikely to move militarily before early next year, according to the latest British estimates.

Another pressing issue this weekend is the potential collapse of the deal to rein in Iran’s nuclear programme. Talks continue to try to get Iran to comply with monitoring, while the Islamic state continues enriching uranium. “They are doing just enough to keep the talks alive but without getting anywhere close to resolving the issue,” a British official said.

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The UK has warned Iran that this is their “last chance” to reach an agreement. But officials are concerned that hardliners in Tehran don’t want the deal, which led to a freeze on enrichment in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, and which the US abandoned when Donald Trump was president. Unless Iran agrees terms, the reimposition of sanctions is likely.

The third issue troubling diplomats is the lingering threat of Chinese military action against Taiwan. But UK government insiders openly admit that Britain has very little leverage on that. “We are focused on the two issues where we think we have something meaningful to offer.”