The line Sinn Fein wants to cross in this Thursday’s election can be clearly marked on a map. It runs across the top of north Belfast, where Fort-william Park meets Antrim Road. As the streets suddenly become leafier, traditional Sinn Fein territory gives way to an SDLP heartland.
The republican party has encroached here in recent years but failed to sweep away its nationalist rival, as it must do to have any chance of unseating Nigel Dodds, the DUP deputy leader and constituency MP. North Belfast has always returned a unionist to Westminster. Taking the seat would be a victory over unionism and a loudly announced arrival among the Catholic middle classes.
Last year, in what was widely seen as a statement of intent, Sinn Fein moved its constituency office one mile up Antrim Road to Fortwilliam Park. Last month it selected John Finucane, son of murdered solicitor Pat Finucane, as its North Belfast candidate. Finucane grew up on the Fortwilliam side of the line. His first foray into politics has aroused considerable interest, despite his party’s cautious media strategy keeping him at arm’s length from most regional news outlets.
At the row of shops beside Sinn Fein’s office last week, every customer was aware of the new candidate. “Finucane’s a good bloke with plenty of experience and he’ll appeal up the Antrim Road,” said Damien Strain, who will be voting for Sinn Fein because of Brexit concerns and in order “to see Stormont back up and running again”.
“John Finucane would help everyone in this area,” agreed Lily Mulholland, another Sinn Fein supporter. “I think Sinn Fein can work for the two communities if people would give them a chance. Brexit is very much an issue for me and we have to have Stormont back. It’s either that or direct rule.”
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Student and first-time voter Vangelis Marangubakis — a Greek name but he was born and bred in north Belfast — said he would be backing Sinn Fein for its “views on equality” and “to get the best Brexit deal for Northern Ireland”. He added: “A lot of people I’ve talked to seem to like Sinn Fein.”
Bobby Toal, a long-time SDLP supporter, had planned not to vote but said he will be giving the SDLP another chance after watching Sinn Fein and DUP representatives arguing on television the night before. “The SDLP are the only ones who’ll be able to speak for us on Brexit because Sinn Fein won’t go to Westminster and fight our case,” he said. “They should be at Stormont working.”
Despite the momentum behind Finucane’s campaign, pollsters give Dodds a 90% chance of re-election — and North Belfast is the only seat Sinn Fein has any prospect of taking from the DUP. This is the paradox behind Northern Ireland’s Westminster contest: Brexit, the collapse of Stormont and the mood on the ground suggest everything has changed, yet the polls say nothing will.
Unionism enters the race with 11 seats and nationalism with seven. There is a consensus that the evenly split constituency of Fermanagh and South Tyrone, held by the UUP thanks to the DUP standing aside, will tip back to Sinn Fein. Another switch is possible in South Belfast, where Sinn Fein’s refusal to give the SDLP incumbent a clear run could allow the DUP to come up the middle.
These are the only seats expected to change sides. Nearly every other battle is within unionism or nationalism and will only consolidate the dominance of Sinn Fein and the DUP, currently with four and eight seats respectively.
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Alex Kane, a writer and commentator, believes that after Sinn Fein’s success in last March’s assembly election, when it came within 1,100 votes of the DUP, the real contest this week is for total votes rather than seats. “It is, pure and simple, a numbers game,” he said. “Sinn Fein wants to keep the momentum going in terms of votes. It knows it can’t overtake the DUP in seats but it certainly has the chance to run them close and perhaps even overtake them in votes and emerge as the largest party in Northern Ireland.
“If that happened it might embolden them to push for another assembly election — hoping to make it to the first minister’s office this time.”
Kane added: “Unionism remains spooked after March, and needs a comfort boost. So DUP leader Arlene Foster has made this about the union and sending Sinn Fein a message about not having the numbers for a border poll. It will probably work well. Unionists had become a bit sanguine about the assembly: as long as there was an overall unionist majority they weren’t fussed. So I think they’ll be receptive to the Foster message. It looks like being a good day for her.”
Polls predict that the DUP will slightly increase its March vote share of 28.1%, with Sinn Fein holding steady at 27.9%. Jon Tonge, professor of British and Irish politics at the University of Liverpool, says there is “quite a lot of pressure on Sinn Fein to deliver again”. He added: “The SDLP vote is fairly resilient so after the excitement of March this could be duller.”
Daithi McKay, a former Sinn Fein assembly member, believes the DUP has been aiming for a dull election. He said: “The nationalist tide came in at the March elections and the challenge for Sinn Fein, in particular, will be in bringing back out those voters that re-engaged because of a series of ill-thought out political comments from Arlene Foster. In the last couple of weeks the DUP have played a low-profile campaign, deliberately in my view. Avoid poking nationalists in the eye and they will be less likely to turn out.”
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Claire Hanna, an SDLP assembly member, says she is “assuming the DUP’s vote will be sufficiently freaked out by [what happened last] March to come out, and everyone seems to be over their anger at [the renewable heat incentive scheme controversy]. “I’m not sure if Sinn Fein have managed to motivate their voters as much — I wonder if some of them may be bothered by the uncertainty around the future of Stormont,” she said.
With little expected to change at the top, McKay says the fate of the smaller parties could be the story of the election. The SDLP’s three MPs are all tipped to hold their seats, as is the UUP’s Danny Kinahan in South Antrim, the party’s only MP outside Fermanagh and South Tyrone. But McKay notes that if Kinahan loses — and he has a wafer-thin majority — the UUP will be “wiped out”.
Mike Nesbitt, then UUP leader, resigned on the night of the March count and has been succeeded by Robin Swann. Kane said: “If Swann has a dreadful first election, I think it may be the straw that breaks the party’s back. Even losing one seat costs them in terms of parliamentary funding. Every lost MP, MLA and MEP takes a huge toll in both psychological and financial terms.”
McKay said: “The SDLP has held three Westminster seats for the past 20 years even though their vote has declined significantly.
“It will be extraordinary if party leader Colum Eastwood can hold off Sinn Fein in South Down and a multiple-party challenge in a tight South Belfast field. Mark Durkan should be able to hold off republicans in Derry, although with younger voters increasingly turning to Sinn Fein it is clear the SDLP walls in Derry can only hold for so long.”
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There is also potential for an upset in East Belfast, where Alliance leader Naomi Long could dislodge the DUP. She held the seat from 2010 to 2015 after defeating Peter Robinson. Tonge said: “If the DUP loses East Belfast — a 40% chance I calculate — it would be a poor enough result to restart the pressure on Foster.”
“Alliance has a chance,” Kane reckoned. “The odds favour the DUP but Long has bucked those odds in the past. She’s feisty and liked on the ground. However, if unionists are in the mood for sending a message to Sinn Fein then Alliance may take a hit. They had their best performance in almost 30 years in March — she will want to sustain that momentum in case there is another election.”
Sylvia Hermon, Northern Ireland’s only independent MP, is considered certain to hold her seat in North Down.
The prominence of Stormont as an issue in a Westminster election, alongside Brexit and calls for a border poll, raise the question of how Thursday’s results will be interpreted.
Hanna said: “It took everyone three weeks to stop talking about pacts and the only real policy discussion, Brexit, is still puddle-deep. I think the results will be seen primarily in terms of Sinn Fein and the DUP trying to clear the ground between themselves a bit, and trying to make the other parties less relevant. For the SDLP it’s about trying to keep focused on the implications of Brexit for Northern Ireland and the futility of Sinn Fein’s Westminster abstentionism.”
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McKay believes two outcomes will be analysed. He said: “One will obviously be the make-up of the British government and who the incoming secretary of state, returning to critical negotiations, will be. The other will be how the local results compare to the March assembly election. If nationalist turnout falls back, then unionists will be more tempted to rerun the March assembly election to regain a majority at Stormont.
“Put simply, these two factors will influence how motivated parties will be to reach a deal or face into another election in early autumn.
“The DUP have adopted a reverse-SNP strategy and are trying unsuccessfully to present this election as a de facto referendum on the union. There will probably be a majority of unionist MPs elected but, regardless, debate about a border poll will continue to increase in the vacuum that Brexit has created in the north.”
McKay says there is also a strong southern angle for republicans. “If Sinn Fein increase their number of abstentionist MPs from four to six there is also a clear message from northern nationalists to Dublin that they want a home for their representatives in the Dail.”
Kane says the outcome will be seen as a simple head count on the union. “It’s the issue in a way it was never quite the issue before,” he said. “We always say that every election is the usual sectarian headcount. But the figures actually matter this time.”