When George W. Bush arrives in Scotland for the G8 summit next week, he will already have been cast as the villain of the piece by the protest lobbies. More sophisticated observers will, nevertheless, have recognised that while this President does not do “I feel your pain” in the manner of his predecessor, he has a record of offering limited promises and sticking to them. When Tony Blair decided to make Africa and climate change the themes of the British presidency of the G8, it was widely argued that he would make minimal progress with his ambitions. Mr Bush, it was contended, would not budge because he and his Administration were the prisoners of a dogmatic ideology.
This is not the impression that the President offers in his interview with The Times this morning. Mr Bush has scant time for fashionable causes and he drives a hard bargain. He has been willing, for example, to swallow some doubts and endorse much of Gordon Brown’s blueprint for African debt relief, but provided that the condition of genuinely good governance in return is real and verifiable and not merely lip service. Mr Bush is right to be forceful on this point as the history of Africa over the past three decades is not one of insufficient outside financial assistance but of too little reaching those who need it most. That mistake must not be repeated.
As Mr Bush reveals in his interview, he will set out his priorities for Africa. He will call for a practical agenda — one that focuses on the elimination of disease, the universal provision of education and that promotes not simply fair elections but the range of qualities associated with the creation of democratic societies. There will doubtless be those who will contend that such a programme is just a sophisticated form of “imperialism”. Most Africans would look upon any plan to alleviate AIDS, raise the level of literacy and reduce political tyranny as welcome.
It should also be remembered that Mr Bush has put his taxpayer’s money where his, at times inarticulate, mouth is. American aid to Africa has not only tripled on his watch but it being spent more wisely on humanitarian projects. While the Bush proposals might not chime in every respect with the “Marshall Plan II” that Mr Blair and Mr Brown (especially) have spoken of, it is doubtful whether extra resources and fresh weight being placed on Africa would have occurred without the Prime Minister’s and Chancellor’s determination and a dash of rock star diplomacy. That alone could make Britain’s leadership of the G8 this year worthwhile and not merely worthy.
It is improbable, if the Kyoto treaty is deemed the exclusive measure of intent on this score, that Mr Bush will be as accommodating on climate change. Yet there are signs here that the President is informally shifting his position. There is no enthusiasm in any quarter of Washington — White House or the Congress, Democrat or Republican — for an approach to the environment rooted in the implicit assumption that all economic growth is to be regretted. There is, however, an acceptance that if technological innovation is to be the means for the reversal of global warming, then measures are required to encourage research in this area. Mr Bush may have more to announce in this area before reaching Gleneagles.
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Mr Bush asserts that he is not trying to “help Mr Blair out”, but to co-operate on shared goals and principles. Mr Blair will, despite this, find Mr Bush’s approach to the G8 distinctly helpful.