The challenge came from the Bulgarian socialist party, the heir of the former communists who in 1946 expelled the nine-year-old tsar and his mother and sister after a referendum that turned the Balkan nation into a socialist republic. Sergei Stanishev, the party’s leader, has pledged to withdraw Bulgaria’s 400- strong contingent from Iraq if he wins power.
Early projections predicted the socialists would win about 31% of the vote, some seven points ahead of the former tsar’s party but well short of a viable majority. Saxe-Coburg, who spent half a century in exile, became prime minister after his newly formed national movement won elections four years ago.
Voters have since turned away from his business-friendly government, disillusioned by widespread poverty and frustrated by corruption and crime. While tourism on the Black Sea coast has risen rapidly, fuelling a property boom, many Bulgarians feel their leader has not delivered on a promise to increase their living standards in 800 days.
Saxe-Coburg tried to lure jaded supporters to the ballot box by organising a nationwide tombola for voters, with £663,000 in prizes.
It is not only political power and its trappings the former tsar risks losing for a second time. Socialist parliamentarians have threatened in the past to review and possibly reverse a restitution process under which former royal properties were returned to him and his family. One estimate has put the value of these palaces, lodges and forests at more than £100m.
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Saxe-Coburg’s supporters have not given up hope that he might yet remain in power even after losing the election. If the socialists fail to put together a coalition with the smaller parties, the former tsar will then have the chance to try instead.
The question of who rules Bulgaria over the next 12 months will be crucial for its future. Failure to continue reforms, particularly in law and order, could provide an opportunity for France or Germany to postpone the country’s accession to the European Union, currently scheduled for January 2007.
This would not only delay a much-anticipated £7 billion from Brussels in the years following accession, but would also severely hit the confidence of British and other foreign homebuyers.