This tour will be a decisive one in the history of the Lions. On yesterday’s early evidence they could come clean off the rails as early as Saturday. It is not too fanciful to believe that despite the public and players’ love for the Lions, this week could be the beginning of their breakup. There are elements within the professional game which would like to see this tradition smashed. Club rugby has no love for the Lions. It makes money and friends but is regarded by the new elite as an irritating anachronism.
Yes, the tour is judged by the success of the Test series, but if the Lions lose games such as the forthcoming matches against the Blues and the Crusaders, it is hard to see them doing anything other than going under against the double world champions. Injuries to Ryan Crotty and Ben Smith lengthen the worrying list of Kiwi casualties but there is talent in abundance, as yesterday’s ragtag team illustrated.
Another tour to New Zealand with echoes of 2005 will have future players, let alone fans, wondering whether this cherished tradition has reached its end. Even though the Lions have intimated they will not pick a Test team until the Maori match a week on Saturday, despite the Crusaders having a record of 14 straight Super Rugby wins this season, two defeats will send the tour spiralling into a dark place.
“All the talk of this being the best Lions side since the 1971 Lions seems like the same old blind faith. The possibility of a 2005 repeat looms
Theoretically the Lions could lose all five games against the Super Rugby sides and still win the series. Only in theory. The reality is a marker needs to be put down. This All Blacks side will not be caught cold with complacency. Steve Hansen has been through that before against France in 2007. His lesson is learnt. A losing pride of Lions would encourage them to go for the kill. All the talk of this being the best Lions side since the 1971 Lions seems like the same old blind faith that passes for thought every four years. The possibility of a 2005 repeat looms.
That is the worst-case scenario, one fuelled by fierce opposition. All the Blues All Blacks (bar Jerome Kaino) are expected to be selected if fit. The Lions are set to meet up with Sonny Bill Williams. The Auckland based side are the weakest of the five New Zealand franchises but greatly improved from recent seasons. Warren Gatland is expecting a physical test.
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Saturday should be infinitely more difficult. The Crusaders were far from their best but made it 14 consecutive wins yesterday. A substantial core of All Black forwards are set to take on the Lions. However, the Crusaders are vulnerable to a rush defence. They play with excessive width. And the Lions, with less than three weeks until the first Test, will select a powerful line-up.
The farcical nature of the Lions’ preparation cannot be overstated. Yet there is way of looking at the massively maligned fixture list. The easy fixtures of the last two tours were more of a negative than a positive. Romps against weak teams is more of a hindrance than hard games — if you can find a way to win them.
The Lions’ only loss ahead of the first Test in Australia four years ago was against the Brumbies, the game that led into the first Test. Stuart Hogg was fly-half, newcomers filled in the spaces behind the scrum. The Lions won the first Test and lost the second, but it was not until Test rugby battle hardened them that they produced the sort of performance of which they were capable.
In South Africa in 2009, it was plain sailing until the first Test. The Springbok management pulled their best players and the Lions won game after game without finding their shape. They were a fine squad but were 2-0 down after two Tests. As in Australia, they won the third Test, after two tough Tests. The Blues and Crusaders are a challenge but one that will be of enormous benefit to the Lions should they surmount them. They will float their way to Dunedin for their fourth match if both games are won. Gatland will also have a good idea whether any more of his men are playing themselves either into or out of contention. Selection was akin to guesswork in 2009 and 2013. It is going to take a great team to win a series in New Zealand. If this rusty Lions team progress miraculously to follow in their 1971 ancestors’ giant footprints, they’ll beat these franchised teams. So much for the players, what about the fans, the lifeblood of the Lions? The only wonderful thing about yesterday was the atmosphere. Eden Park is sold out for Wednesday. Every win is something to celebrate.
There have been too many easy games in recent tours; bad news for the Lions, bad news for the supporters. While the result of Test matches is the final arbiter of a tour’s success, a run of victories against some of the world’s best rugby teams would bolster the Lions, no matter what the result of the series. The next nine games are all meaningful. This tour is so much more than a procession of pointless games en route to the series.
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We can whinge about the difficulty or embrace the challenge. By Saturday the Lions could be broken. But the excellence of opposition, with or without Kaino and Crotty, might be their making. This Lions tour is more than just three Test matches. Rejoice.
ON TV SATURDAY
Crusaders v Lions
Sky Sports 1, 8.35am
