Labour has lost its lead over the SNP at Westminster in the wake of Gordon Brown's leadership crisis, a new opinion poll has found.
A slump in Labour support from 40% at the last Westminster election to 28%, down four points from April, would see the party lose nearly a third of its 41 Scottish MPs, with Scottish secretary Jim Murphy and Scotland Office minister Ann McKechin struggling to hold their seats.
The YouGov poll of more than 1,000 Scottish voters found support for the nationalists has almost doubled from 18% to 31% since 2005, up one point from April. But the Conservatives are toiling on 17%, down four points from April and on course to take only three of Scotland's 59 seats.
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That could leave David Cameron vulnerable to claims by Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, that the Tories have no mandate to govern in Scotland if they win the next election.
The first minister believes the chances of winning a referendum on Scottish independence next year will be greatly enhanced if the Tories win power, despite minimal Scottish support, before then.
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Support for the Lib Dems rose from 13% in April to 16% but is well short of the 23% it secured in 2005, indicating their poor profile since leaving coalition government is costing them support.
Among the 12 Labour casualties would be: Des Browne, the former Scottish secretary and defence secretary; Nigel Griffiths, the former small businesses minister; James McGovern, the MP for Dundee West; Michael Connarty (Linlithgow and East Falkirk); Frank Doran (Aberdeen North); Ann McKechin (Glasgow North); Gavin Strang (Edinburgh East); Anne Begg (Aberdeen South); Mark Lazarowicz (Edinburgh North and Leith); Gordon Banks (Ochil and South Perthshire); and Russell Brown (Dumfries and Galloway).
Murphy, who was 14% ahead of the Tories in 2005, would be just 1% ahead, according to the latest YouGov poll conducted from June 2 to 4.
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But on this level of support the SNP would struggle to win the Glasgow North East by-election, expected in the summer, after the resignation of Michael Martin as Commons speaker.
It supports the findings of a Sunday Times constituency poll last month that Labour has an 18% lead over the nationalists in Martin's seat.
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A separate YouGov poll of more than 1,900 people across Britain on Thursday and Friday for The Sunday Times suggests the Brown government is in trouble. The Tories, with 40% of the vote, maintained a 16-point lead over Labour, which is down at 24%. But both parties have lost support over the past month; in May their ratings were 43% and 27% respectively.
The beneficiaries are not the Liberal Democrats, unchanged on 18%, but the smaller parties, up from 12% to 18%. A majority, 60%, say Brown should step down now or before the next election, which 49% believe should be held immediately.
The prime minister has been abandoned by a number of the multi-millionaire businessmen who bankrolled Labour's last election campaign, including Richard Caring, a restaurant tycoon and Rod Aldridge, former chairman of the Capita business services group, who together lent £3m in 2005.