The history of trade and of Britain are inextricably linked. From the inventions of James Watt, the ideas of Adam Smith, and the designs of John Maynard Keynes, Britain has done more to invent the way the world trades than almost any other nation. As a Frenchman, that’s not an easy thing to admit.
So it is natural that Britain’s future trade relationships have taken centre stage in the EU referendum. Sadly, the intensity of the debate hasn’t been complemented by clarity of thinking. Trade negotiations are a world of hard-bitten talks, where even close allies set aside diplomatic courtesies for national advantage. It is for Britons to decide how to vote, but as a friend I want to give voters the benefit of my experience as a former WTO director-general and EU trade commissioner.
Brexiteers argue that EU countries will want to strike a deal because Britain has a large trade deficit with the rest of the EU. That is simply not true. The UK is more reliant on trade with the EU than vice versa.
EU leaders will fear that anti-Europe parties in their own backyard will get momentum from Brexit, so will want to drive a hard bargain to avoid contagion. In a competitive global marketplace, they will seek any advantage they can get. My own country will probably be among the hardest to negotiate with. Imagine how eager French farmers will be not to have your beef or lamb on our supermarket shelves. And no one will show any love for the City of London.
If it fails to get a deal, there is a real risk that the UK would have to fall back on WTO rules. Some in the Leave campaign have said this would not be a bad option. As the former head of the WTO, let me be clear: this would be a terrible replacement for access to the EU single market. Though tariffs have fallen, they are still high enough to hurt businesses and therefore jobs: 10 per cent for cars, 12 per cent on clothes, 70 per cent on some beef products.
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Some claim the UK could strike better trade deals on its own. Let’s be honest, there has not been a major WTO deal in 23 years and the most significant agreements are being negotiated between regional blocs.
Any ambitious UK-EU deal will need to be ratified in 27 legislatures as well as the European parliament. How much time will all of this take? My best guess is five to 15 years. In the meantime, British firms will face an uncertain future, and it is very unlikely that the UK would be a more prosperous place at the end of it.
Pascal Lamy was director-general of the WTO 2005-13