THE Brexit referendum is arguably much more important than a general election. It will have a fundamental impact on our economic future, the outcome will endure for many decades, and will probably be irreversible. This is quite different to electing a government for five years.
I am a retired chief executive with 19 years’ experience leading RAC, easyJet and Whitbread . Even with all this international business experience, the Brexit choice is not a simple one. Here is my two-pennyworth, written simply as a British citizen, with no particular business axe to grind.
It seems inevitable that Britain will become less relevant on the global stage — politically, economically and militarily. If we are to punch our weight we shall need to increasingly co-operate with our friends and our neighbours. Our economic success is founded on international trade, especially with the other members of the EU. Why would we put this trade at risk by no longer having a seat at the European top table, which is where the trading rules are decided?
Some say we need to limit immigration. Certainly we cannot cope with big surges of immigration but remember that the most prosperous part of the UK (London) is an open and internationally diverse economy.
Some say that Brussels interferes too much and is undemocratic. True, but let’s not forget how irritating Westminster and local councils can be, and the weaknesses of the UK democracy, including the shortcomings of “first past the post”, an embarrassingly debased House of Lords and out-of-date constituency boundaries.
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Some say we need to recapture our sovereignty. The reality is that our sovereignty has been eroded by international trade, international capital markets, Nato and, of course, the worldwide web.
I used to think that when I became a chief executive I would have more control over my life. The reverse was true. I became even more dependent on other people. Let’s not kid ourselves into thinking that we can “become our own boss”. Britain’s influence on the world stage comes from persuasion and co-operation, which is more powerful when done with our friends and neighbours.
We experience huge benefits from being part of the EU. There is a natural tendency to take what you have for granted until it is lost. The benefits include huge inward investment, which supports millions of jobs, and billions of pounds of trade.
In addition, the risks are not evenly spread across the country. London may well continue to prosper if we go it alone, but the risks are much greater for the rest of the UK, which lacks the comparative advantage enjoyed by the capital.
The potential benefits of Brexit are hard to define and quantify. None of us knows how our EU partners would react if they were spurned. I can, however, see lots of additional risks. A vote to leave would be a massive step into the dark. Let’s all think carefully before we put our cross in that box.
Andy Harrison , former chief executive of easyJet and Whitbread; chairman of Dunelm
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Verdict on EU doesn’t add up
IN LAST WEEK’S Economic Outlook, David Smith stated that the relative improvement in UK economic growth figures from the 1970s to the present “clearly” owed something to our joining the EEC, and quoted an article by Professor Nick Crafts, an economic historian, as evidence of this.
The problem is that statistical science cannot really deal with questions of causation relating to complex counterfactual issues — for example, what would have happened if we had not joined the EEC.
Smith was probably right in saying that our membership of the EEC/EU had a significant impact on UK growth, but I suspect it would require more than a paper by an economic historian to determine whether that impact was positive or negative.
Harold Lind, London N1
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Germans will help the stock exchange
IN PRACTICE there is no such thing as a merger because one party always dominates the other. The London Stock Exchange will inevitably be subsumed by its German rival (“Wilkommen to the City”, last week).
However, the short-term advantages for Britain should not be underestimated. The absence of a premium and sentimental considerations are of secondary importance to the potential savings resulting from the deal. I hope it goes ahead.
Gabriel Jaffé , Bournemouth