Ministers are privately reassuring Eurosceptic Conservative backbenchers that citizens of European Union countries arriving in Britain during a Brexit transition period will not have the automatic right to stay indefinitely.
The government is due to set out its proposals for a transition arrangement with the EU later this week, with formal negotiations due to start next week. Draft EU guidelines make clear that Brussels will insist that the UK agree to allow its citizens who come to Britain during the transition period the same rights as those here now.
In an attempt to quell backbench fears that the government is preparing to give way on the issue ministers have been privately contacting Tory MPs to insist that they are holding firm. They have told them that statements from Brussels only reflect the EU’s “negotiating position” and should not be taken at face value.
Sources in Brussels have suggested that the issue is not the most pressing for the British government and that ministers may eventually give way in order to secure “more important” priorities. Top of these is understood to be a commitment that the UK is consulted on EU directives and regulations that might come into force during the two-year period. The government also wants to ensure that the UK has a seat at the table when fishing quotas are set.
Ministers are also aware of the pressing need to get a transition deal agreed by the end of March to reassure businesses who might otherwise implement contingency planning for a hard Brexit. Yesterday Jeremy Hunt, the health secretary, admitted this might not be possible.
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Guy Verhofstadt, the European parliament’s lead negotiator, insisted yesterday that the EU would not give way on the issue of citizens’ rights.
The EU’s demand to extend full residency rights, automatically and indefinitely, to all European migrants until the end of a transition period at the beginning of 2021 has other implications. Under the current withdrawal agreement, the European Court of Justice has oversight of the rights for eight years, until March 2027. If the EU wins the battle then the European courts will continue to have the ultimate decision about who has the right to live in Britain until January 2029.
In another development that is politically toxic for the government, the EU will seek to use transition and trade talks to extend residency rights to non-European relatives of EU citizens in Britain after Brexit, including a spouse that a migrant has not yet met. The current withdrawal agreement, agreed last year, protects the “current rights of spouses, registered partners, parents, grandparents, children, grandchildren and a person in a durable relationship”.
British sources told The Times that Michael Gove, the environment secretary, will have to back down on his plans to introduce an independent national fisheries policy in 2019 because of the transition negotiations. A white paper on the future of fisheries next month will be forced to acknowledge that the UK remains fully part of EU fishing quotas until at least 2021.
Q and A
What is the EU demanding?
Under guidelines drawn up for the transition talks, EU member states are insisting that freedom of movement must continue until the end of the transition period. In practice, they say, this means that any Europeans coming to the UK after March 2019 must have the same rights as those here now to stay indefinitely.
What does the government say?
Nothing in public but privately ministers have been reassuring their own Brexit supporting MPs that they intend to stand firm. They point out that the EU’s guidelines are only an opening negotiating gambit and Britain will be a “third country” after March 2019.
What will happen?
Senior sources in Brussels expect that Britain will eventually concede on the issue. They point out that it is imperative the UK gets agreement on the transition period as soon as possible to reassure businesses. They also say that the UK has other priorities and that in reality the number of new EU migrants coming to Britain is likely to be small.
