There is “not a chance” that the government will be able to complete an EU trade deal within Theresa May’s two-year Brexit time frame, a former head of the civil service has warned.
Downing Street tried to play down comments this morning by Sir Ivan Rogers, Britain’s ambassador to the EU, that it could take up to ten years for a post-Brexit deal to be agreed.
Sir Ivan’s comments were backed up by Lord O’Donnell, the former cabinet secretary and head of the civil service, who said that it was “blindingly obvious” that the UK would need a transitional agreement and that any new trade deal would take at least five years to negotiate.
The prime minister was in Brussels today for a summit to discuss the migration crisis, the war in Syria and European defence issues. However, she will be excluded from a dinner attended by the other 27 leaders, during which they are expected to discuss their negotiating stance before No 10 triggers Article 50.
Video footage showed Mrs May looking on awkwardly and fidgeting as other leaders exchanged greetings before formal proceedings yesterday. However, another clip showed her laughing and chatting.
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Mrs May insisted that it was right for the other 27 leaders to meet without her present.
“As we are going to invoke Article 50, trigger the negotiations, by the end of March next year, it’s right that the other leaders prepare for those negotiations as we have been preparing,” she said.
“We will be leaving the EU, and we want that to be as smooth and an orderly process as possible. It’s not just in our interests, it’s in the interest of the rest of Europe as well.”
Lord O’Donnell told BBC Radio 4’s World at One programme yesterday that Britain might be able to “symbolically” leave the EU by 2019, but “all sorts of details will still remain to be sorted out”.
Asked if he agreed with the chancellor that “thoughtful politicians” and civil servants now believed that a transitional arrangement was necessary to smooth the process of leaving the EU, he replied: “I think that’s a statement of the completely blindingly obvious.”
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He added: “The idea that you can manage this carving out of a new relationship between the UK and the EU in 18 months let alone two years, there’s not a chance, there never was a chance.”
Asked how long the process of reaching a final deal would take, Lord O’Donnell replied, “years and years”.
Dominic Raab, a former justice minister and Leave campaigner, insisted that Britain was in a strong position to strike a deal.
He suggested that Sir Ivan was a “scarred” figure, telling BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “He was the diplomat who persuaded David Cameron to dilute his ambitions for the renegotiation, which was one reason the referendum was lost. So he has been rather scarred, in fairness, by his own pessimistic advice in the past.”
He added: “I respect the Foreign Office’s professionalism, but they have always been very pro-EU, and very anti-leaving the EU.”
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Lord Mandelson said the suggestion that a trade deal between the UK and EU could take as long as ten years “rings true”.
He said while agreement on Britain’s exit deal may be reached more quickly, “the separate negotiation on what trade relationship replaces our membership of the EU will be harder and longer and will require the approval of all member states and their parliaments”.
If the government takes the UK out of the single market and customs union and seeks a new deal which is “uniquely tailored” for Britain’s needs, the complex negotiations can be expected to be “a harder slog”, he said.
“It will not be achieved simply or quickly,” Lord Mandelson told the Commons’ business committee.
“While we can’t be certain about how long it will take, a time-span of between five and ten years seems to me realistic.”
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Downing Street said the government believed that it would be possible to complete both the “divorce deal” and a new trade agreement within the two-year time frame set out under Article 50 of the EU treaties.
“The intention is that we will have a deal within the time frame we have set out which sees us exit the EU and allows us to trade with and operate within the single market,” a spokesman for No 10 said.