Britain’s ambassador to the EU has privately warned the government that a Brexit trade deal could take ten years to finalise, it emerged today.
Sir Ivan Rogers briefed ministers that a post-withdrawal agreement could take five times longer to complete than the two-year deadline for leaving the EU after triggering Article 50, which the prime minister has pledged to do before the end of March.
The diplomat, who conducted David Cameron’s negotiation over the terms of Britain’s membership of the EU, also said in his October briefing that any deal may face obstruction from the other 27 member states and fail to be ratified at all.
The Conservative MP Dominic Raab, a former minister who backed Leave, branded Sir Ivan a “gloomy pessimist” and insisted that Britain was in a good position to close a deal with Brussels. The warning from Britain’s EU ambassador was also contradicted yesterday by David Davis, the Brexit secretary, who told MPs that an 18-month timetable to hammer out a deal was possible.
Downing Street sought to play down Sir Ivan’s remarks, insisting that the government remains “fully confident” of a deal. No 10 also insisted that the diplomat had been relaying the views of other EU ambassadors and was not setting out his own personal view.
Advertisement
The revelation came as Theresa May arrived in Brussels today declaring that a “smooth and orderly Brexit” was in every nation’s interest. She said it was right for the other 27 EU leaders to meet without the UK tonight to thrash out their plans for handling the Brexit talks.
In October, Sir Ivan suggested that a trade deal may not be hammered out until the early to mid-2020s. The process of ratification entails each country in the bloc approving a deal in its own parliament.
He also said European leaders believe the Brexit deal is likely to be a free trade arrangement rather than continued single market membership.
Mr Raab told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that Mr Rogers was a “scarred” man, adding: “He was the diplomat who persuaded David Cameron to dilute his ambitions for the renegotiation, which was one reason the referendum was lost. So he has been rather scarred, in fairness, by his own pessimistic advice in the past.
“But I think it’s reasonable to set out the very worst case scenario for a five to ten-year period to iron out all the details of a trade deal.
Advertisement
“I respect the Foreign Office’s professionalism but they have always been very pro-EU and very anti-leaving the EU.
“Let’s not be consumed by Sir Ivan’s gloomy pessimism, let’s get behind the government, let’s set out the case for a strong post-Brexit relationship with the EU on trade, security and other areas.
“My view would be, go in there, try and get the very best deal, there’s precedents all around the world for signing free trade deals in a shorter period of time than Sir Ivan has said.
“But ultimately, if we have to leave the EU without ironing out all those creases, then I’m open-minded about it. I don’t think we want to end up in some kind of indefinite limbo period, but if that’s what it takes to get a win-win, then I’m open-minded about it.”
A No 10 spokesman said: “It is wrong to suggest this was advice from our ambassador to the EU. Like all ambassadors, part of his role is to report the views of others.
Advertisement
“The government is fully confident of negotiating a deal to exit the EU that works in the interest of both the UK and the rest of Europe.”
